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June 9, 1997

RICHARD BARNETT, et. al., Plaintiffs,
CITY OF CHICAGO, et. al., Defendants, and CAROLE BIALCZAK, et. al., Defendant-Intervenors. MARY BONILLA, et. al., Plaintiffs, v. CITY OF CHICAGO, et. al., Defendants, and CAROLE BIALCZAK, et. al., Defendant-Intervenors.



221. The first stage of Professor Estrada's fragmentation analysis was to characterize each census block in the City by its racial or ethnic population majority. Each block was then designated according to its assignment in a white, African-American, Latino, or no voting age population majority under both the Ketchum and the present ward maps. According to this method, under the present ward map: 90% of whites (92% if the 18th ward is viewed as white), 95% of African-Americans (92% if the 18th ward is white), and 74% of the total population of Latinos reside in wards where they comprise the majority voting age population. Under the Ketchum settlement map, as of the 1990 census, only 49.8% of all Latinos were in Latino VAP majority wards. The present ward map, therefore, effects a significant diminution of Latino fragmentation.

222. Professor Estrada's analysis failed to limit itself to legally relevant fragmentation. Given his method, even census blocks which could not be located in a Latino majority ward, because of their remote location from Latino population cores, were counted as fragmented. This runs counter to his own definition of fragmentation. His fragmentation analysis addressed this defect by subjecting the Ketchum map and the Bonilla alternative maps to the same fragmentation analysis. The Bonilla alternative maps result in an average of 86% (86.2% for the first alternative map and 85.5% for the second alternative map) of all Latinos being included in Latino VAP majority wards. Apparently, therefore, since the Bonilla alternative maps were drawn with the intent of placing as many Latinos in Latino majority wards, the majority of the "fragmented" Latino majority census blocks are in areas of the City where they could not be included in Latino majority wards. It is possible to correct a portion of Latino fragmentation as evidenced by the alternative maps. Even under the alternative plans, however, Latinos would remain the most fragmented group in the City. This structural fragmentation is due to the fact that only approximately 61% of the City's Latino community lives in Latino majority census blocks.

 223. More telling to the identification of legally relevant fragmentation, is Professor Estrada's analysis of Latino fragmentation on the south side. Under the present ward map, the south side Latino majority wards 12, 22, and 25 all have Latino total population majorities of at least 73%. Under the present ward map, there are also sizeable Latino total population blocks in the adjoining wards: the 11th ward is 28% Latino, the 14th ward is 35% Latino, the 15th ward is 12% Latino, and the 16th ward is 21% Latino. The bulk of this Latino population resides in what Professor Estrada termed the "south side growth area" which encompasses the Back of the Yards, Marquette Park and Gage Park neighborhoods. No other identifiable or similarly-sized population group was divided into as many wards.

  224. In order to correct this fragmentation, and to create an additional Latino ward, it is necessary to draw some problematic wards -- in the first Bonilla alternative map, the reconstituted 14th ward which encompasses 97.2% of the "south side growth area" and is 70.03% Latino stretches from approximately 16th Street on the north to 63rd Street on the south. The 14th ward in the second alternative map is much more compact, comprising approximately 98.8% of the south side growth area, however, it has a much smaller Latino majority of only 57.33% TP and a VAP majority of only 51.16%. Thus, while the fragmentation of Latinos on the south and southwest side can be significantly ameliorated by the drawing of an additional Latino majority ward -- it can, apparently, be corrected only by drawing a ward with a bare Latino majority or by drawing a highly elongated Latino majority ward. Nonetheless, at this stage of the analysis, it appears that it is at least theoretically possible to moderate the fragmentation of Latinos on the southwest side of the City.

 d) Methods for Estimating Latino Citizenship Rates

 225. While this Court ultimately rejects defendants' contention that citizenship rates are relevant to the Bonilla plaintiffs' satisfaction of the first Gingles prong, it is nonetheless worth discussing the competing methodologies for estimating citizenship. Because of the flaws of the offered methods of determining CVAP, and the methodological quagmire in which courts would find themselves if they were to adopt CVAP as a benchmark, this Court finds that VAP is a more adequate indicator of the effectiveness of the alternative Latino wards.

 226. Part of the difficulty in using citizenship data lies in the manner in which it was collected by the Census Bureau. Citizenship data was derived from sample data compiled at the block group level. Block groups are clusters of blocks containing between 250 and 550 housing units. Ward boundaries are based upon census blocks rather than block groups. Ward boundaries do not necessarily correspond to the block group boundaries. If ward boundaries indeed corresponded to the boundaries of the census block groups, CVAP might have been a valid population benchmark.

 227. Nor was the citizenship data derived from full count data. Only one of every eight households in Chicago received the long form questionnaire from which citizenship data was derived. As with any sample data, there was necessarily the danger of sampling error and, therefore, it is best used for inferring general characteristics of large population groups and it is less reliable when applied to smaller population measures, such as census blocks.

 228. Professor Estrada's method of estimation involved the application of the sample data for citizenship to those portions of an actual ward which contained a particular block group. In short, Professor Estrada applied the citizenship rate of a particular block group to the actual full count population of the portion of the ward which was contained in the block group straddling ward boundaries. This method had the benefit of using the actual, full-count census data for total and voting age population and using sample data only for the citizenship estimate. This method also had the benefit of establishing a citizenship estimate for an actual ward.

 229. Professor Rives, on the other hand, relied upon sample data to determine voting-age and total population even though it was possible to obtain that information from the full-count data. (DX 509,866). This use of sample data, when full data was available, had the effect of understating Latino voting age population by approximately 1%.

 230. Nor did Professor Rives attempt to determine the citizenship rate to actual wards. To the contrary, he redefined ward boundaries by the inclusion or exclusion of block groups on the borders of wards. When a block group straddled a ward boundary, the entire block group's citizenship population was applied to the ward with the largest proportion of the block group's voting age population. This method resulted in a wholesale veiled reconstitution of the wards. While approximation of this type might be appropriate at a grosser level, this methodology becomes increasingly less competent when applied at smaller demographic levels. Professor Rives', methodology resulted in consistently lower estimates of Latino citizenship rates in every district analyzed. Nor did Professor Rives' "goodness of fit" analysis indicate that his method of estimating citizenship was any more reliable than Professor Estrada's method. Professor Rives did not adequately explain his criteria for goodness of fit. At best, based upon his testimony, Professor Rives' goodness of fit analysis meant only that his ward approximations generally included more than 90% of the actual wards within their boundaries. (Tr. 6503, 6507-8).

 231. Professor Estrada's method for estimating citizenship itself contained some problematic assumptions. His method assumed that each block within a block group had the same citizenship rate. This is precisely the same assumption, but on a smaller level, upon which the sample data is based -- that deviations of this nature will tend to cancel each other out throughout the statistical sample. The danger of citizenship rate variations across block groups points to the problematic applicability of citizenship rates at the census block level, the data is increasingly unreliable as it is applied to a decreasing population base. Applied to the City as a whole the sample data is reasonably reliable, but at the ward or block level it is not. Sample data is by its nature subject to sampling error, requiring an analysis of point estimates and confidence intervals for the citizenship estimates, statistical devices which courts are notoriously ill-equipped to handle. Not only is this Court uncomfortable with the notion of applying statistical methodologies with which lawyers and courts are often less than adroit, it is equally hesitant to rely upon estimates that are intrinsically inaccurate and subject to various sampling errors.

 232. The redistricting process is intrinsically political, and for all the testimony concerning statistical sciences which this Court heard at trial, it is not convinced that the participants in the process were less cognizant of the population needed to constitute an effective ward than the various experts, even though they did not have the benefit of the citizenship sample data.

 233. It is also inappropriate to use citizenship as a population benchmark for VRA § 2 because that data, besides being subject to sampling error, was not even available at the time the ward maps were being prepared. The redistricting process is difficult and drawn out enough as it is without forcing the persons drawing a ward map to perform a metaphysical impossibility and to use citizenship population figures that were not yet even available when the ward map was being prepared.

 234. It is unclear in any event that CVAP, rather than VAP, would be a more accurate indicator of the effectiveness of a ward, since by Professor Rives' estimation method, the present 12th ward does not have a Latino CVAP majority, yet it operates as an effective Latino majority ward.

 3. Professor Allan Lichtman

 235. Professor Allan Lichtman, a professor of History at American University, testified on behalf of the Bonilla plaintiffs concerning: 1) polarized voting between Latinos and non-Latinos in the City of Chicago; 2) the effect of racially polarized voting on the capacity of the Latino electorate to elect candidates of their choice; 3) voter registration and turnout levels; and 4) the percentage of Latino voters necessary to give Latino voters an opportunity to elect their candidates of choice in aldermanic elections. (BOPX 74, 76, 180).

 a) Latino Political Cohesiveness and Polarized Voting

 236. Professor Lichtman analyzed 28 elections in an effort to determine the extent to which Latinos tend to vote for Latino candidates and the extent to which non-Latinos tend to vote for non-Latino candidates (and correspondingly the extent of any crossover voting for Latino candidates by non-Latinos). This analysis pertains to the second and third Gingles preconditions -- that is, whether minority voters are politically cohesive, and whether the white majority votes sufficiently as a bloc to defeat usually the minority's preferred candidate.

 237. In his analysis Professor Lichtman studied a group of 28 elections, both aldermanic and non-aldermanic. Professor Lichtman reviewed all single-seat, non-partisan and democratic primary elections between 1987 and 1995 involving both Latino and non-Latino candidates. He further winnowed the field of eligible elections by eliminating those elections which contained marginal candidates. Professor Lichtman used as his threshold for a marginal candidacy the winning of at least 15% of the vote by the losing Latino or non-Latino candidate(s).

 238. Professor Lichtman's analysis was based solely upon data retrieved from election returns and census data. All the voting behavior experts relied upon the same information, in fact the parties created a joint computer base containing this information. Defendants criticize Professor Lichtman because he did not attempt to go "behind the numbers" to account for such variables as a candidate's gravitas, charisma, funding, experience, incumbency or endorsements. The relevant issues to Professor Lichtman's analysis were simply whether minority voters are cohesive and whether whites vote as a bloc to defeat the minority candidate of choice. If plaintiffs establish evidence of a pattern of polarized voting, defendants may attempt to overcome the inference of racially polarized voting by presenting evidence that whites vote as a bloc for reasons other than race or that minority candidates have lacked whatever it takes to prevail in the normal course of politics. UNO, 72 F.3d 973, 981. Defendants, however, have not come forward with enough evidence to disprove the historical trend of polarized voting established by Professor Lichtman.

 239. While this Court is somewhat perplexed by Professor Lichtman's exclusion of non multi-ethnic elections, it nonetheless concludes that there is adequate evidence of polarized voting between Latinos and whites in the City of Chicago to satisfy the second and third Gingles prongs. By examining only Latino versus white elections, Dr. Lichtman apparently presumed that there was no identifiable Latino-preferred candidate in those elections. It is troubling to suppose that Latino voters could never prefer or be adequately represented by non-Latino candidates. The opportunity to participate in the political process is not reducible to being ensured of electing candidates of one's own race or ethnicity. Focusing on multi-ethnic elections, however, highlights the evidence of polarized voting. See, LULAC v. Clemens, 999 F.2d 831, 864 (5th Cir. 1993), cert. denied, 114 S. Ct. 878 (1994).

 240. Looking only at multi-ethnic elections has flaws, however. Where minority voters supported a particular white candidate, and white voters supported another white candidate that information could be relevant to the vote dilution analysis. Professor Lichtman's analytical method failed to recognize that communities within this City might develop multi-ethnic or multi-racial coalitions, in which social or economic interests rather than racial or ethnic factors dominate an electoral choice. By neglecting to look at elections in multi-ethnic wards which did not have elections with multi-ethnic candidates, Professor Lichtman's analysis failed to account for the possibility that voters could coalesce around issues other than race or ethnicity.

 241. While Professor Lichtman's analysis was not entirely complete because it failed to consider non multi-ethnic elections, it still established that polarized voting exists within the City of Chicago. Since an issue in this case is whether the VRA requires the drawing of additional Latino majority wards which would have lower Latino majorities than the present wards, the outcome of multi-ethnic elections is relevant to this Court.

 242. In order to satisfy the second and third Gingles preconditions, Professor Lichtman sought to identify the Latino candidate of choice, the extent to which the Latino community has voted cohesively, and whether non-Latinos usually prevent by default that candidate from prevailing. Professor Lichtman's analysis simplified this analysis by analyzing a series of elections and determining whether there has been a pattern indicating that Latinos and non-Latinos tend to prefer other candidates. Given this information, along with an analysis of Latino and non-Latino voter turnout, it was possible to estimate the ability of Latinos to elect their candidates of choice and the effectiveness of the alternative wards. Certainly, there are numerous factors which might influence an election other than race or ethnicity, but this Court has heard testimony concerning only one election, in the 10th ward in 1991, attributing the polarization in the electorate to a cause other than race or ethnicity.

 243. Professor Lichtman's analysis of polarized voting combined candidates by race or ethnicity. Rather than analyzing the level of support for each candidate, Professor Lichtman looked at the level of support for Latino candidates and non-Latino candidates as a group. In elections with multiple candidates, Professor Lichtman did not consider the level of support for any individual candidate. This methodology presented the polarization issue in its clearest terms and allows for the identification of electoral polarization where Latinos tend to vote predominantly for Latinos and non-Latinos for non-Latinos. As the leading scholarly literature has observed, the failure to look at the combined candidate data often results in a misleading picture of minority political cohesion. Grofman, Handley, Niemi, Minority Representation and the Quest for Voting Equality, at 99. The practice of combining candidates permits a clear view of the level of racially or ethnically polarized voting. It is, however, independently instructive to look at the election data for individual candidates in order to identify the extent to which minority voters have coalesced around a particular candidate of choice. In the end, however, requiring minority voters to coalesce around a single minority candidate in order to demonstrate their cohesiveness, when they have clearly demonstrated their preference to vote for minority candidates would be a strange way of encouraging minorities to participate in the political process.

 244. Professor Lichtman made extensive use of exogenous elections, that is elections for other offices, in his analysis. Professor Lichtman himself recognized that endogenous (here, aldermanic) elections are generally preferred. Endogenous elections have the benefit of having a similar pool of voters, of having the same size pool of voters, and of having the same election rules -- all of which help ensure the reliability of the analysis. The pool of multi-racial or ethnic aldermanic elections, which satisfied Professor Lichtman's criteria was very small -- consisting of only 6 elections. *fn15" Professor Lichtman, therefore, also reviewed the results of non-aldermanic elections including judicial elections, democratic ward committeeman elections, and democratic primaries for city clerk, state representative, county commissioners, congressional representatives, and city treasurer. The same general pool of candidates is eligible for the non-partisan aldermanic elections as for the democratic primaries since more than 90% of the Chicago electorate is Democratic. (Tr. 3042). The review of additional elections, in this instance, also permitted a broader indication of the existence of polarized voting since aldermanic races in the Latino majority wards have not tended to be competitive insofar as competitive white candidates have tended not to run in these wards. The absence of competitive multi-ethnic elections races in the Latino majority wards skews the polarization analysis, while the more competitive non-aldermanic elections better indicate the extent to which polarized voting takes place in elections with significant candidates. With four exceptions, Latino candidates have prevailed only in Latino-majority districts. (Tr. 3102).

 245. While expanding the pool of eligible elections to include exogenous elections permitted a broader sampling of elections, it also raised several difficulties with Professor Lichtman's analysis. Some of the non-aldermanic elections had different election rules. For example, in the judicial elections, more than one candidate was elected from each district. (Tr. 3100). The absence of winner-take-all outcome rules made it easier for a minority group that would otherwise be ineffective to elect its candidate of choice. In fact, in the judicial elections the Latino candidate prevailed because whites split their votes between multiple candidates. (Tr. 3102). Professor Lichtman's use of multiple-winner elections rendered his analysis of the effectiveness of the Bonilla alternative maps highly questionable, since he relied in large part upon Latino success in these districts, with bare Latino VAP majorities, to conclude that the alternative wards would be effective. The Court cannot give much credence to conclusions derived from elections with different decisional rules, other than to conclude that instituting cumulative voting for aldermen would likely increase minority representation. *fn16"

 246. Additionally, while the pool of the eligible electorate might be the same for democratic primaries as for non-partisan aldermanic races, it is equally likely that the character, education or motive of the voters who vote for less visible offices in party primaries will likely be different in many ways from voters in local aldermanic elections.

 247. The pattern of polarization for non-aldermanic and aldermanic elections differed, but aldermanic elections were still for the most part polarized (other than the 1991 aldermanic election in the 33rd ward in which Alderman Mell was the Latino candidate of choice), although "Anglos" and Latinos tended to vote more similarly in aldermanic elections. This phenomenon can likely be explained by the large Latino supermajorities in the Latino majority wards -- assuming the validity of an explicitly racial calculus, it would make more sense for non-Latino voters to throw their support behind a palatable Latino candidate than to mount what would likely be a futile non-Latino candidacy. The one aldermanic election with a clear showing of racially polarized voting took place in the 10th ward in 1991, a ward that had a Latino plurality rather than a supermajority. *fn17" Even defendants' polarized voting expert, Professor Weber, analysis looking solely at aldermanic elections revealed some polarized voting. (DX 506). The exogenous elections merely strengthened the ambiguity of the polarization finding derived from endogenous elections. Thus even though there were significant problems with Professor Lichtman's selection of elections, those problems discredited only a portion of his analysis but did not discredit the central finding that in competitive elections there is polarized voting between Latinos and "Anglo" voters and there is polarized voting, albeit less extreme, between Latinos and African-Americans.

 248. While there have been many elections in which Latino candidates have won, those elections have generally been in Latino VAP supermajority districts. Where Latinos have won in other districts, they have often won due to the effects of multiple-winner election rules or because of a fractured field of candidates. (Tr. 3100, 3102). There have been two elections in which Latino candidates have prevailed in non-Latino districts with a majority of the votes, namely in the 1991 and 1995 Democratic primaries for City Treasurer. Also of some relevance in those elections was the fact that Miriam Santos was the preferred candidate of the Democratic Party leadership, which likely contributed to the level of white support she received.

 249. Professor Lichtman relied upon three chief forms of statistical methodology to analyze voter behavior: multi-variate ecological regression, extreme case analysis, and an examination of the actual outcomes of elections. Professor Lichtman also relied upon the R2 values (or squared-correlation coefficient) to assess the reliability of his regression analysis.

 250. Courts, and respected experts in the field have been reluctant to accord much value to multi-variate regression analysis which is prone to extensive manipulation. Grofman, Handley, Niemi, Minority Representation and the Quest for Voting Equality, at 100. One accepted use of multi-variate regression analysis is to analyze voter behavior in areas with multiple racial or ethnic groups (as is the situation in Chicago in which there are Latino, African-American, and white residents in many wards) and in which there are also homogenous precincts. Multi-variate regression permits the simultaneous analysis of the voting behavior of all three relevant racial or ethnic groups.

 251. By adding a third variable, however, the complexity of the regression equation is increased geometrically. Using trivariate regression it is no longer as readily possible to make use of scatterplots of the regression equation in order to double-check the neatness of fit of the regression line. Nor is it as easy to identify "outliers", that is, individual precincts in which voters behave outside of the trend of the other voters and which might, by their aberrant result, affect the average outcome of the regression equation.

 252. Based on his analysis, Professor Lichtman found that Latino voters tended to vote for Latino candidates at an overall average of 86%. The mean "Anglo" (which meant all non-Latino and non-African American voters) level of support for Latino candidates was 33%, meaning that 67% of "Anglo" voters did not support Latino candidates. The mean African-American level of support for Latino candidates was 55%. There were, however, several elections in which there were significant exceptions to this average, for example in the 1991 aldermanic election in the 33rd ward, Alderman Mell received the plurality of Latino votes, and in the 1991 and 1995 Democratic primaries for the City Treasurer, a Latino candidate, Miriam Santos, received the majority of "Anglo" and Latino votes, additionally in several Democratic primaries for County Commissioner and Sanitary Commissioner, Latino candidates received the majority of "Anglo" votes.

 b) Latino Majority Necessary to Constitute an Effective Ward

 253. Although the parties disagree on the possible cause, they concur that the registration and turnout rates of Latinos are significantly lower than those of whites. Professor Lichtman's analysis of turnout rates, however, indicated that the lower Latino turnout cannot be attributed solely to citizenship. According to Professor Lichtman's data, in the south side wards, the Latino turnout in terms of VAP is frequently one half to a quarter of the turnout rate of whites. On the north side, the differential in turnout rates is generally not as large.

 254. This Court is not satisfied that Professor Lichtman's analysis supports his conclusion that the Bonilla alternative wards would be effective Latino wards. The lowest Latino VAP majority in any of the current aldermanic wards is 59.6% in the 35th ward; all of the other aldermanic wards have VAP majorities of at least 62.7%. The state representative districts all have VAP majorities of at least approximately 65%. The county commissioner districts have Latino VAP majorities of approximately 56.7%. Additionally, in the primary elections analyzed for these exogenous offices, it is not necessary to obtain a majority vote to prevail. Only the judicial districts have a Latino VAP majority lower than a sizeable majority with a Latino VAP majority of approximately 50.8% in one of the districts. These judicial elections, however, have multiple winners making it easier for Latino candidates to prevail. No aldermanic election has ever been won by a Latino candidate with less than a 59.5% VAP majority. *fn18"

 255. Under the Bonilla alternative maps, the southwest side alternative wards would have lower Latino VAP majorities than the present southwest side Latino majority wards. Under the current ward maps, the Latino majority wards have sizeable Latino VAP supermajorities (the 12th ward has a VAP majority of 65.44%, the 22nd ward has a VAP majority of 74.49%, and the 25th ward has a VAP majority of 68.153%). Under Bonilla alternative map I the Latino VAP majorities are lower (12th ward-- VAP majority of 63.35%, 14th ward -- VAP majority of 64.23%, 22nd ward--VAP majority of 65.10%, 25th ward -- VAP majority of 64.71%). The margins are even smaller in some of the Bonilla alternative II maps (12th ward -- 66.05% Latino VAP majority, 14th ward -- 51.16% Latino VAP majority, 22nd ward -- 68.14% Latino VAP majority, and 25th ward -- 71.90% Latino VAP majority).

 256. By the calculations provided by Bonilla counsel, guided by Professor Lichtman's estimates, it would be possible that Latino-preferred candidates could prevail in the alternative southwest side wards, although by those calculations these elections would be extremely close. Given the very close margin for error, it is not difficult to discern why representatives of the Latino community preferred that there be three Latino supermajority wards on the southwest side with high supermajorities in order to cement Latino political gains for the present time rather than seek four wards in which electoral success was not assured.

 C. Barnett Experts

 1. Dr. James H. Lewis

 257. Dr. James Lewis, Vice-President for Research and Planning for the Chicago Urban League, testified on behalf of the Barnett plaintiffs concerning: 1) racial divisions in recent City Council votes, and 2) disparities in the fund-raising opportunities available to African-American and white candidates. (BAPX 109). In his professional capacity, Dr. Lewis has extensive experience at conducting and overseeing research on public policy issues and, despite defendants' contentions to the contrary, was qualified to testify as an expert for the purpose of assembling and analyzing the public records which were compiled in his report and rendering an opinion regarding the impact of racial divisions on City Council votes and the financing of aldermanic elections.

 258. While Dr. Lewis is indeed qualified to testify as an expert regarding public policy concerns, his testimony was not entirely credible. This Court was particularly troubled by Dr. Lewis' repeated reliance upon head signals from counsel during his cross-examination. (Tr. 2345).

 a) City Council Voting and Race

 259. In total, Dr. Lewis' testimony was not very instructive. The methodology and selection criteria in his analysis of city council votes left much to be desired. Dr. Lewis' analysis of city council voting patterns consisted of three steps: 1) he examined public opinion by selecting several survey questions from the Metro Chicago Information Center expressing public opinion on a variety of public policy questions; 2) he selected several City Council votes which he believed showed racial divisions on important public policy issues; and 3) he attempted to correlate public opinion to the City Council votes. Each of these steps contained choices which Dr. Lewis could not explain to an extent precluding this Court from giving great credence to his analysis. Nonetheless, Dr. Lewis' report and testimony does tend to indicate that as a general matter there are slight, general differences of opinion concerning issues such as housing, health services and affirmative action and fair housing, between the African-American and white communities in Chicago which are reflected in City Council votes. Dr. Lewis' report and testimony established these divergences in such a cursory and superficial manner that this Court can give Dr. Lewis' findings only little weight.

 260. Dr. Lewis based his analysis of public opinion upon the selection of Metro Chicago Information Center ("MCIC") survey questions concerning policy issues about which African-Americans and whites allegedly have differing opinions. To support his findings, Dr. Lewis selected 15 survey questions from the MCIC survey, a survey which had more than 100 pages and several hundred questions. This Court was not given an adequate account of Dr. Lewis' selection criteria nor of the possibly relevant questions which he chose not to include in his analysis. In general terms, Dr. Lewis selected questions concerning: homeless shelters and housing, health services privatization, fair housing compliance, affirmative action, gambling, schools and employment.

 261. In many cases, the differences in the survey answers were not significant -- for example: 72% of whites and 92% of African-Americans believed that government spending on health care is very important; 64% of whites and 82% of African-American favored affirmative action set asides for college or employment; or 23% of whites and 20% of African-Americans have gone to a legal casino in the last year while African-Americans tended to spend twice as much as whites on the lottery each week. Reliance upon survey responses such as those reduced Dr. Lewis's conclusions to nothing more than a statement of superficial generalities.

 262. The problematic selection criteria used by Dr. Lewis point to the chief problem with this section of Dr. Lewis' report -- his entire report presumed that any difference in white and African-American responses to the survey questions were necessarily due to racial differences. Given Dr, Lewis' selection of particular survey questions in isolation this Court must query whether in their entirety, the differences in the survey responses were due to non-racial factors such as income or religious affiliation. By taking survey responses in isolation, Dr. Lewis presupposed that his hypothesis was correct and selected survey questions which tended to support his position without accounting for other factors which may or may have not supported his views. *fn19" Therefore, this Court concludes that, while the report indicated that there were some differences in the opinions of the white and African-American communities concerning housing, education, fair housing issues, affirmative action and health services, the extent to which these differences can indeed be attributed to divergent communities of interest is not at all clear.

 263. The second step in Dr. Lewis' analysis, the analysis of City Council votes, was equally troubling. Once again, Dr. Lewis apparently selected data that would prove his hypothesis, disregarding, without any justification, data that would not support his theories. Nor was the procedural posture or the eventual outcome of any particular piece of legislation plain from Dr. Lewis' report and testimony -- for example, there were apparently several South African disinvestment ordinances contemporaneously before the City Council and the support for a more moderate proposal by white aldermen did not necessarily indicate racial division in the City Council. It was impossible to tell how often there were similar situations in which there were competing pieces of legislation before the Council one of which was viewed as an administration proposal and one which was viewed as an independent proposal, or one of which might require modifications to the budget or other appropriations.

 264. Dr. Lewis chose 12 votes which took place between 1989 and 1994, leaving this Court to wonder how many other votes were held which might also have been relevant. Many of the votes referred to by Dr. Lewis were procedural votes, and Dr. Lewis could not identify the final outcome on these substantive issues. Two of the Council votes, South African disinvestment and the establishment of a Fred Hampton Day, did not have any relation to the MCIC Survey data results but were selected for their symbolic value. Fred Hampton was also a political and social lightning rod about whom well-intentioned people could have very different opinions. *fn20" While the votes selected by Dr. Lewis indicated that at least 12 City Council votes between 1989 and 1994 broke down along racial lines, the report did not lead to a broader conclusion than that there were 12 divided votes concerning various issues in the City Council.

 265. The final step of Dr. Lewis' analysis was to attempt to match the MCIC survey data to City Council votes. The match between the two was often not entirely clear. The purpose of this analysis was to show that the votes of African-American aldermen tended to track the opinions of African-American community more closely than the votes of white aldermen. There were no survey questions related to Fred Hampton Day or South African disinvestment and with respect to these two votes, Dr. Lewis simply intuited the interests of the African-American and white communities. Dr. Lewis' conclusions in this phase of his analysis were beset by the difficulty of tracking the generalized interests identified in the survey data to particular pieces of legislation. For example, most respondents to the survey stated that it was very important to spend state/local taxes on health (72% of whites and 92% of African-Americans responded "yes") yet it was not clear how those opinions related to a resolution "urging the Department of Health to postpone negotiations, contracts or studies affecting privatization of public health services." Professor Lewis' report is rife such grapes and raisins comparisons.

 266. For example, it was unclear how the survey response indicating that more African-Americans than whites (32% over 13%) fell behind on housing or utility bills related to the extension of Commonwealth Edison's utility license agreement. Nor was it obvious how a survey question asking why a person has been unable to find work (to which 6% of whites and 13% of African-Americans responded that they were not working because they could not find work) related to a proposed ordinance which would have required a public hearing before waiving the City residency requirement on City contracts.

 267. In summary, Dr. Lewis' report did not lend itself to anything. more than the most general conclusions concerning differences in opinion on public issues between the African-American and white communities and the corresponding policy differences in the City Council. Dr. Lewis set out to find racial cleavages and he evidently disregarded any information which did not support his conclusions. The report and testimony was filled with oversimplifications and generalities which often approached characterization and stereotyping. Dr. Lewis's report and testimony was little more than anecdotal evidence dressed up in the garb of expert opinion.

 b) Campaign Fund Raising and Race

 268. Nor did Dr. Lewis' analysis of disparities in access to campaign financing permit anything more than the most generalized and superficial of conclusions. Once again, his report amounted to a type of stereotyping or self-fulfilling prophecy insofar as he disregarded any other factors which may have had an impact of fund-raising by a candidate such as incumbency or the character of the ward.

 269. Dr. Lewis' compilation of fund-raising records made no effort to account for several factors which the data itself indicated had a serious impact on fund-raising abilities -- incumbency and the seriousness of the candidate. While the data indicated that on average white aldermanic candidates raised more than African-American candidates, Dr. Lewis' report made no effort to go beyond the most superficial statement of that fact. There was no attempt to separate out candidates who were not serious contenders. For example, in 1991 several of the African-American wards had elections with as many as 5 candidates running against an incumbent -- in each of these elections the incumbent raised substantially more than any of the other candidates. According to Dr. Lewis' data, African-American incumbents generally, with a few exceptions, raised as much as their white counterparts. Incumbency is a particularly important consideration in fund-raising abilities: as an incumbent in 1995 Alderman Murphy of the 18th ward raised twice as much as he had four years previously. Another indicator of the importance of incumbency is found in the fund-raising figures for Alderman Streeter of the 17th ward, in 1991 when facing no opponents who had submitted financial disclosures, he raised only $ 16,373, while in 1995 facing several adversaries he raised more than twice as much. Dr. Lewis' report and testimony made no effort to account for the effect of incumbency on fund-raising ability.

 270. The financial disclosure statements from the 1995 18th ward aldermanic election are of some interest. This was the only election included in Dr. Lewis' report in which a white candidate ran against African-American candidates. In that election the incumbent white candidate raised nearly 10 times as much as the combined total for the three African-American candidates. How much of this disparity was due to incumbency, or the skill of the candidates and how much was due to racial disparities in fund-raising access was left to speculation but both factors were likely at play. This Court is leery, however, of making broad conclusions based upon one election.

 271. While there are many non-racial reasons for disparities in fund-raising ability that were not touched upon in Dr. Lewis' report or testimony, on average, African-American candidates tended to raise less than their white counterparts. Dr. Lewis' data also included, though, several African-American aldermen who, for whatever reason, were able to raise substantially more than any other aldermen, white or black. This indicates that fund-raising ability is not entirely race-specific.

 2. Dr. D. Garth Taylor

 272. Dr. D. Garth Taylor was called by the Barnett plaintiffs to present expert testimony concerning the differing communities of interest between the white and African-American communities. He is the executive director of the Metro Chicago Information Center ("MCIC"), a non-profit research organization. His report and testimony focussed on several areas: 1) an examination of city-wide patterns of per-capita income, public school enrollment, families in poverty and other socio-economic indicators which Dr. Taylor testified are closely correlated to race; 2) his historical discussion of racial hostility by whites in the 18th and 19th wards on the southwest side of the City, 3) a socioeconomic analysis focusing on the southwest and southeast sides, and 4) his city-wide canvassing of the divergences of African-American and white opinion on a spectrum of public policy issues including the ward map referendum and an analysis of the incidence of hate crimes in the City. (BAPX 78-107). The bulk of Dr. Taylor's analysis was presented in the form of maps illustrating the various socio-economic indicators and public opinions selected by Dr. Taylor.

 a) City-wide Socio-economic Communities of Interest

 273. This Court's criticism of Dr. Taylor's analysis of city-wide socioeconomic data is similar to that of Dr. Lewis' analysis. Dr. Taylor's analysis begs the question of the correlation between the socio-economic data he selected and race thanks to Dr. Taylor's selection of data which only proved his hypothesis. Again, as was the case with Dr. Lewis' analysis, Dr. Taylor's opinions merely stated the obvious in a manner placing an expert patina on what was essentially subjective or anecdotal evidence.

 274. Dr. Taylor's analytical method consisted of mapping socio-economic data derived from either census data or the MCIC survey and then attempting to draw conclusions concerning the correlation between race and communities of interest based upon the patterns revealed on the maps. The chief defect of Dr. Taylor's city-wide socioeconomic analysis was in his selection of the parameters for his illustrative charts. The break-points in his illustrative maps were puzzling and were never adequately explained. His city-wide socio-economic maps merely established that based upon per capita income, percent public school enrollment, percent single parents with children, and percent of families in poverty with children there were differing core socio-economic communities of interest with poorer areas centered around the west-side and the center of the south side, and more affluent areas in the periphery of the City with the boundary areas being somewhere in the middle of the two extremes.

 275. The difficulty of characterizing the "border" areas of the city is typified by the vote for the referendum map. According to Dr. Taylor's compilation of the data, the African-American level of support in the 18th and 19th wards for the referendum data was generally higher than it was in other areas of the City -- somewhere between 15% and 49.99% as opposed to the 0-14.99% support in the core African-American sections of the City. Dr. Engstrom's regression analysis estimated the African-American level of support for the Referendum Map in the 18th ward at 15%, higher than the city-wide rate of African-American support (BAPX 13).

 276. Despite these difficulties, Dr. Taylor's analysis still demonstrated that there are differences, at the extremes, between the two communities. It is nearly impossible, given Dr. Taylor's extremely selective use of the data, to determine precisely how pervasive those differences are.

 b) Communities of Interest in the Southwest and Southeast Sides

 277. The first phase of Dr. Taylor's analysis of the southwest side was a non-quantitative analysis of historical events concerning housing and education in the 18th and 19th wards intended to illustrate cleavages between the white and African-American communities in this area of the City. Dr. Taylor did not perform a similar analysis for any other part of the City -- this was likely due to the history of this area of the City and the focus of the Barnett case on the 18th and 19th wards.

 278. While much of Dr. Taylor's analysis of the 18th and 19th wards concerned incidents which occurred 20 or more years ago, the report also discussed more recent incidents which implied continuing racial tensions in this area of the City. While the racial divergences in this part of the City are neither as virulent nor as obvious as they were in response to the school desegregation efforts, including bussing, and the fair housing initiatives of the 1960's and 1970's, the African-American and white communities still have different interests with respect to education and affordable housing policies.

 279. Dr. Taylor's contemporary analysis revolved around: 1) the debate to expand the High School for Agricultural Sciences, a successful magnet school with a largely African-American student body situated in the majority white Mt. Greenwood neighborhood of the 19th ward, and 2) the controversy surrounding the development of low-income and affordable housing projects in the 19th ward. While this Court does not question the good faith of the elected representatives in the 19th ward in their opposition to these projects due to fears of overdevelopment and overcrowding, the relevant issue is whether whites tended to have a different valuative calculus than their African-American counterparts and whether white elected representatives tended to favor the interests of their white constituents to the detriment of their African-American constituents. Well-intentioned people could have had radically different opinions, which were entirely non-racial, with respect to each of the recent incidents discussed by Dr. Taylor. What is relevant is whether these differences tracked differing communities of interest between the white and African-American communities.

 280. In order to illustrate the existence of disparate communities of interest in the southeast and southwest sides, Dr. Taylor made use of socio-economic data and maps illustrating that data. Dr. Taylor's illustrative maps were intended to indicate the extent to which residents of the relevant areas had similar needs and desires and therefore constituted a community of interest. It is likely, of course, an oversimplification to equate a person's socio-economic condition with his or her opinions on public policy matters. In order to attempt to establish his hypothesis, Dr. Taylor selected six socio-economic factors: households per census block, percent rental units, per capita income, percent vacant dwelling units, percent public school enrollment, percent of families in poverty with children, percent single parents with children, and percent African-American. Why these data were selected instead of other, or additional, socio-economic data was never explained. Apparently this data was selected because it captured the differences Dr. Taylor sought to portray. This, of course, does not confront the issue of whether self-fulfilling indicators were selected to the exclusion of data that would not have confirmed Dr. Taylor's hypothesis. Nor was it clear that these indicators are ones which were relevant in the redistricting process. Given the trial record, the factors relevant to redistricting were not necessarily socioeconomic or racial but were the preservation of traditional ward boundaries, the preservation of neighborhoods and parish boundaries, and population equalization.

 281. This Court is troubled by Taylor's analytical method in this phase of his report. Dr. Taylor's method consisted of mapping the socio-economic data and then drawing conclusions concerning the correlation between race and communities of interest based upon a review of the patterns revealed on the maps. The keys prepared by Dr. Taylor significantly effected the overall patterns identified on the maps and rendered Dr. Taylor's identification of communities of interest problematic. *fn21"

 282. The statistics displayed in Dr. Taylor's southwest side and southeast side maps were exceptionally skewed by his selection parameters. A recital of the keys contained in Dr. Taylor's maps illustrates the problem:


a) in his households per census block graph, Dr. Taylor's parameters were 0-15, 16-30, 31-40 and 41-366 households per block, a statistical division which made little sense in a city with as many apartment buildings as Chicago;


b) in his percent of rental units graph, Dr. Taylor's parameters were 0-9.99%, 10-19.99%, 20-29.99%, and 30-100% rental units, once again no reasonable justification was offered;


c) in his per capita income graph, Dr. Taylor's parameters were $ 0-$ 12,000, $ 12,001-$ 17,000, and $ 17,001-$ 50,281 per capita income, a set of parameters exhibiting a rather bewildering selection of break-points insofar as a community where the average per capita income is approximately $ 17,500 would have little in common with one where the average per capita income is $ 50,000, yet in Dr. Taylor's analysis these two communities would be identical;


d) in his graph of percent vacant dwelling units, Dr. Taylor's parameters were 0-.00%, 1-2.99%, 3-5.99%, and 6-100% vacant rental units;


e) in his graph of public school enrollment, Dr. Taylor's parameters were 0-50%, 50.01-80% and 80%-100%;


f) in his graph of the percent of families in poverty with children, Dr. Taylor's parameters were 0-.99%, 1%-3.99%, 4%-7.99%, and 8%-100%;


g) in his graph of the percent African-American population, Dr. Taylor's parameters are 0-50%, 50.01-80%, and 80.01-100%.

 These particular break points were so extreme, and were apparently calculated for the purpose of creating the starkest possible differences in the communities by concealing the more nuanced nature of the socio-economic spectrum.

 283. Even accepting these fragmented socio-economic data, only the most generalized conclusions concerning socio-economic communities of interest could be reached based upon them. While there were some differences between the western and the eastern ends of the 18th and 19th wards, these areas were not so disparate that they could confidently be characterized as containing different communities of interest. Nor were the eastern sections of the 18th and 19th wards significantly more similar to the areas to their east than they were to the areas to their immediate west, except in terms of being super-majority African-American areas. If Dr. Taylor's socio-economic analysis of the southwest side established anything, it was that the eastern ends of the 18th and 19th wards are transitional areas with mixed socio-economic characteristics which are not readily stereotyped or diagramed.

 284. Dr. Taylor's compilation of socio-economic indicators for the southeast side led to a similar conclusion. The 10th and the 7th wards have very similar socio-economic conditions. There were no clear cut socio-economic breaking points in these areas -- in particular the Latino community to the north of the Chicago Skyway expressway, which was included in the 10th ward is not significantly different from the Latino community south of the Skyway expressway. Additionally, in general terms Dr. Taylor's charts did not indicate that Latinos share a socio-economic community of interest more similar to African-Americans than to whites. The only thing clearly established by Dr. Taylor's socio-economic analysis of the southeast side was that there are several majority Latino census blocks on the border between the 7th and 10th wards which were included in the 7th ward rather than in the 10th ward.

 285. Dr. Taylor's 'hate crimes' map, however, indicated that the southwest side, particularly the 18th and 19th wards, and the Marquette Park areas, as well as Hyde Park and Kenwood, Bridgeport and portions of the downtown area and the far north side and Uptown are sites of some tension. While the 'hate crimes' included in Dr. Taylor's map were not limited to racially based 'hate crimes', the areas of the highest incidence of hate crimes on the southwest side corresponded roughly to those areas experiencing racial change or which could be characterized as border areas. While this data indicated that these neighborhoods were unfortunately unstable, the conclusion that the eastern ends of the 18th and 19th wards should be joined with the wards to their east does not necessarily follow.

 3. Professor Richard Engstrom

 286. Professor Richard Engstrom, a Professor of political science at the University of New Orleans, testified on behalf of the Barnett plaintiffs concerning: 1) racially polarized voting between African-Americans and non-African-Americans; 2) alternative ward maps intended to establish that additional African-American wards could be drawn; 3) differential rates of packing and fracturing between African-Americans and whites under the present ward map. (BAPX 13, 14A, 38-57, 70, 149, 150).

 287. Professor Engstrom is a seasoned veteran at considering the validity of districting schemes under the VRA. He is generally considered one of the foremost experts in the field of studying voting behavior. He has also published numerous articles on election systems. Even the defense experts recognized that he is one of the foremost experts in the field whose reputation for integrity is beyond cavil. (Tr. 7838-Weber). This Court mentions Professor Engstrom's professional resume in light of defendants' attempts to characterize him as an unreliable "professional" witness with little practical experience, and to imply that Professor Engstrom's testimony and reports were authored by other persons. This Court finds no reasonable basis to conclude that Professor Engstrom's opinions were not his own or that he failed to familiarize himself with the factors he considered to be relevant to his analysis.

 a) Racially Polarized Voting and the African-American Community

 288. As was the case with Professor Lichtman, Professor Engstrom used several selection criteria in determining which elections to analyze for racially polarized voting. Professor Engstrom analyzed all biracial aldermanic and democratic primary elections between 1983 and 1995 in which he could estimate the behavior of both African-American and non-African-American voters. Initially Professor Engstrom analyzed only elections in which both African-American and non-African-American candidates received at least 15% of the vote, but in response to critiques by the defendants he subsequently considered elections with minor African-American candidates. This addition of these elections did not change Professor Engstrom's determination that there is racially polarized voting in Chicago.

 289. As with Professor Lichtman, Professor Engstrom grouped together African-American and non-African-American candidates as a single entity for the purposes of his polarization analysis in order to determine the extent to which the African-American electorate votes for African-American candidates and non-African-American voters tend to vote for non-African-American candidates. Professor Engstrom, however, also attempted to identify individual candidates of choice of African-American voters, in fact in most of the elections he analyzed, racially polarized voting was identifiable without combining candidates. (BAPX 13).

 290. Professor Engstrom sought separately to determine Latino voting behavior only in City-wide elections and the aldermanic elections in the 1st and 10th wards in 1991. Other than this group of elections, Professor Engstrom, simply looked at African-American" and "non-African-American" voting patterns. "Non-African-American" included Latinos, and any racial or ethnic group, other than African-Americans. While this may not have been the most nuanced of methods, it was not inconsistent with the VRA insofar as it compared the voting behavior of the relevant minority group, African-Americans, with that of "other members of the electorate." This method, however, concealed the extent to which minority coalitions played a key role, at this time, in the aldermanic elections in the far north-side lakefront wards.

 291. In total, Professor Engstrom's reports contained regression analyses for 8 City-wide elections, and 22 aldermanic primaries and runoffs. The Professor also analyzed the city-wide elections on a regional, multi-ward basis. In addition, he analyzed voter behavior in the 1992 referendum for the ward map. One of the city-wide and 5 of the aldermanic elections were held in 1983. While these elections were somewhat old, and were held under the pre-Ketchum ward boundaries, they were nonetheless of some value in displaying the continuing pattern of racially polarized voting in Chicago -- the more recent elections were as polarized as the older elections.

  292. Professor Engstrom's analysis of exogenous elections was justifiable given the residential patterns and the ward composition in the City of Chicago. The number of wards in which there are significant African-American and significant white populations is limited, as is the number of wards in which there are competitive biracial elections. Therefore in order to develop a broad and reliable cross-sample of elections, sufficient to make generalizations concerning the patterns of voter behavior, it was necessary to resort to exogenous elections.

  293. Just as Professor Lichtman relied only upon multi-ethnic elections, Professor Engstrom analyzed only bi-racial elections. As was the case with Professor Lichtman, this Court concludes that this method, while it provides a less than complete picture of voter behavior, nonetheless isolated the racial-bloc voting phenomenon by focusing on the extent to which African-American voters, when given a choice, preferred African-American candidates, and whether that preference was shared by non-African-American voters and whether they voted as a bloc contrary to the preferences of African-Americans. This method was imperfect, and it necessarily presupposed that real minority political choice is limited to voting for candidates of one's own race or ethnicity, but it nonetheless provided the clearest means of identifying the extent to which cleavages remain in the behavior of majority and minority voters. It remains, perhaps, only an aspiration to hope that the electorate and our jurisprudence might both move beyond the presupposition that racial identity between a candidate and the electorate is synonymous, and co-extensive, with political responsiveness.

  294. Professor Engstrom relied upon several modes of statistical methodology to analyze voter behavior: bi-variate ecological regression analysis, extreme case/homogenous precinct analysis, and the use of a correlation coefficient to verify the results of the regression analysis. Defendants raise the same methodological critiques of ecological regression as they did with Professor Lichtman's analysis and this Court's analysis of the validity of ecological regression remains unchanged. Regression is a helpful analytical tool but it does not provide a means for explaining every reason for voter behavior. Regression, verified by homogenous precinct analysis, provides a helpful tool for estimating the extent of polarization and cohesion in the electorate.

  295. Professor Engstrom's conclusions with respect to polarization between African-American and Latino voters were very mixed. In aldermanic elections, namely in the 7th ward in 1987 and the 10th ward in 1991, regression analysis indicated that Latinos did not cast any votes for African-American candidates. On a City-wide level, the results are much more ambiguous, in three of the eight citywide elections analyzed by Professor Engstrom, it was estimated that Latinos cast a majority, or very nearly a majority, for African-American candidates. In the balance of the City-wide elections, however, there was very low Latino support for African-American candidates, in fact in four of the eight elections the estimated level of Latino support for African-American candidates was lower than the catch-all "non-minority" level of support.

  296. Not surprisingly, Professor Engstrom's reports and testimony focused particularly on the 18th ward in which there is a slim African-American VAP majority (approximately 51.7% under the 1980 census and 53.6% under the 1990 census).

  297. Defendants contend that the record of elections establishes three non-racial reasons for the absence of African-American electoral success in the 18th ward: 1) the present alderman, Thomas Murphy, has successfully managed to build a bi-racial coalition; 2) low African-American turnout because of the lack of a dynamic candidate who would mobilize minority voters; and 3) an absence of African-American cohesion around a single candidate.

  298. In 1987, a single African-American candidate received an estimated 90.7% of the African-American vote (and an estimated 0.0% of the white vote) with a 68% minority turnout rate. By 1995, the combined African-American candidates received an estimated 73.4% of the African-American vote, split between 5 African-American candidates, and the leading African-American candidate received an estimated 27.7% of the African-American vote with an African-American turnout rate of only 24%. In 1995, the estimated white vote for all the African-American candidates was estimated at 4.5%, and at 3.0% for the leading African-American candidate. White turnout had also fallen significantly during this period from 83% to 53%. (BAPX 13). In the 1995 election, Alderman Murphy received approximately 25.5% of the African-American vote as estimated by regression analysis and approximately 31% of the African-American vote by homogenous precinct analysis.

  299. No matter what these election results indicated about the inability of the African-American community in the 18th ward to find a single candidate around whom the community could coalesce and for whom the community will turn out en masse to vote, these election results also indicated that there remains polarization in the electorate in the 18th ward. This Court notes, meanwhile, that Alderman Murphy has been very successful at obtaining African-American electoral support insofar as he apparently ran a dead heat with the leading African-American vote-getter in the African-American electorate (the ecological regression analysis and the homogenous precinct analysis resulted in different estimates of who received more support in the 1995 election). The clearly established fact remains, however, that voting patterns in the 18th ward have historically been and remain racially polarized.

  300. The polarization of the 18th ward was further exhibited by the ward's vote for the redistricting referendum -- an estimated 85% (by ecological regression) of the African-American voters cast ballots for the Fair Map while an estimated 96.3% of the non-African-American voters preferred the present ward map. The African-American rate of support for the referendum map in this area of the City was higher than it was in most other wards.

  301. This Court's discussion of the 18th ward cannot end here. This Court was impressed by Alderman Murphy's testimony and his expressed and evident sincerity in attempting to respond to the needs of all his constituents no matter what their racial or ethnic origin (Tr. 6105). While the 18th ward is not an effective African-American ward, it is a ward in which it is impossible for a white candidate to ignore the desires of the African-American electorate. Given the level of support Alderman Murphy received from African-American voters in the 1995 election, receiving approximately the same percentage of votes as the most popular African-American candidate, it is impossible to characterize the 18th ward as one in which African-Americans do not have an opportunity to exercise a real impact on the political process. Given a choice between African-American and white candidates, Alderman Murphy, a white candidate, was the candidate of choice of at least as many African-American voters as any other candidate. Evidently, significant portions of the African-American community and the current alderman in the 18th ward have learned the importance of forming political coalitions based upon a community of interests other than race -- this is a lesson which will hopefully one day be learned by the rest of the electorate of Chicago. Until that day arrives, however, the fact remains that Professor Engstrom's reports and testimony successfully established that African-Americans are generally politically cohesive and that the white majority votes sufficiently as a bloc, absent special circumstances, to defeat the minority's preferred candidate thereby satisfying the second and third Gingles prongs.

  302. The 18th ward, however, is one of the few wards in the City of Chicago in which it is possible for there to be either competitive bi-racial aldermanic elections or for a skillful candidate to forge a bi-racial electoral coalition. It is only by encouraging such elections, in which voters have a real choice, that it might be possible to bring about an end to the unfortunate phenomenon of polarized voting. Drawing wards which are easily identifiable as either white or African-American, in which it is unnecessary to build bi-racial coalitions, only perpetuates polarized voting by denying voters any real opportunity to learn new voting habits and attitudes. But the task of crafting racially and ethnically diverse wards is properly a legislative rather than a judicial project.

  b) Barnett Alternative Maps

  303. Professor Engstrom also testified concerning the first Gingles prong, that the African-American community is sufficiently large and compact enough to constitute an additional African-American majority ward, by means of the preparation of alternative ward maps.

  304. Professor Engstrom's reports included 10 alternative ward maps, as well as several additional ward maps intended to illustrate assorted contentions contained in his reports. As this Court observed with Professor Estrada's Bonilla alternative maps, the Barnett alternative maps were offered for the limited purpose of illustrating that additional African-American majority wards can indeed be drawn and they were not offered as final remedial proposals. This Court is satisfied, pending its analysis of the totality of the circumstances, that the alternative maps established that an additional African-American majority ward can be drawn, likely on the southeast or southwest sides of the City with acceptable population deviations.

  305. The Barnett alternative ward maps also established that it was possible to draw a "least-change" map that did not shift as much population as the present ward map. (BAPX 46). Following a strict least change policy, however, would not necessarily have resulted in additional Latino or African-American majority wards. Although it was possible to draw an additional African-American ward and still make fewer shifts in population than the present ward map. (BAPX 47).

  306. Dr. Engstrom's reports also contained maps indicating that, if maximization of African-American wards was a goal, it would have been possible to draw 24 African-American wards, as well as 9 Latino majority wards and one mixed Latino/African-American ward. (BAPX 44). In order to achieve this mix of wards, however, it would have been necessary for the ward boundaries to be bizarrely shaped, cutting in long narrow swathes through completely disparate neighborhoods. Professor Engstrom acknowledged that this map would likely require strict scrutiny under the Shaw line of cases. (Tr. 4235-6) This map was illustrative of little more than the proposition that anything is possible when one ignores traditional districting criteria.

  307. The bulk of the objections raised by defendants to the Barnett alternative maps are largely irrelevant to the issues addressed by the maps. To the extent that the first Gingles precondition requires that plaintiffs draw additional minority wards, it is necessary that those wards be drawn with race in mind. It is disingenuous to contend that, at this phase of the trial, it is not possible to consider race when drawing alternative ward maps. The only limit is that the alternative maps cannot seriously transgress other traditional districting concerns.

   308. Not surprisingly, the Barnett alternative maps proposed changes to the 18th and 19th wards in order to enable the drawing of an additional African-American ward on the southwest side. The general strategy of the Barnett alternative maps was to move the 13th ward to the south to acquire the western portion of the 18th ward, for the 19th ward to acquire some of the southernmost portions of the 18th ward, and to include the African-American majority blocks at the eastern ends of the 18th and 19th wards within a new African-American majority ward. (BAPX 39). These changes were not dissimilar to some of the changes proposed in Judge Murphy's early draft wards.

  309. Barnett alternative map 3 presented another strategy for the preparation of an additional African-American ward on the southwest side. This map resorted to extremely long, narrow wards extending from the western edge of the City to the center of the south side which are not dissimilar to the bizarrely shaped "chimney" wards of the Equity map. (BAPX 40).

  310. Barnett alternative map 5 demonstrated that it is theoretically possible to draw four, rather than three, African-American wards in the area occupied by the 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th wards. (BAPX 42). This four ward area has a total population that is approximately 71% African-American, so the three African-American majority wards in this area under the present ward map are roughly proportional to the African-American share of the population. In order to effect this proposed change it was necessary to make significant changes in the traditional ward boundaries in this area of the City. The alternative maps split the white areas in the present 10th ward into several wards.

  c) Packing and Fracturing of the African-American Community

  311. This Court has already concluded that total population is the appropriate measure at the first glance for determining whether there has been vote dilution in the form of packing or fracturing since redistricting is, in the first instance, based upon total population. This Court has also previously determined that the legally significant packing or fracturing is that which is legally remediable under VRA § 2. This Court, therefore, concludes that Professor Engstrom did not misstate the character of fracturing and his "eyeball" fracturing and packing analysis is methodologically permissible.

  312. This Court is satisfied that Professor Engstrom successfully identified areas of fractured African-American population. Professor Engstrom's alternative maps adequately identified the extent to which minority members were separated into different political districts disabling them from constituting an effective majority within a single district. The 41,000 African-Americans in the eastern end of the 18th and 19th wards, as well as the 6,000 African-Americans in the southern and western areas of the 10th ward, can be characterized as fractured. The fracturing in the 10th ward could not be remedied, however, without drawing rather unconventionally shaped wards, that would have to cross large unpopulated areas, would negatively impact other groups, and would split communities that had traditionally been a part of the same ward.

  313. This Court, however, is unconvinced by Professor Engstrom's packing analysis. African-American majority wards have, on average, a nearly 20% higher concentration of African-American population than white majority wards (87% as opposed to 68%). Much of this apparent packing is a function of the population patterns in the City in which over 80% of the African-American population lives in census blocks that are at least 90% African-American. Even the Fair Map submitted to referendum had eight wards with over 90% African-American population. (PP 317,318). While it would have been possible to draw the ward map with a larger number of African-American wards, with lower percentage majorities of African-Americans, the only way to do so would have been to resort to extremely long, narrow "chimney" wards which would have required a drastic restructuring of traditional ward boundaries. Such a map would likely have been as unpopular as the Equity Map which was submitted to the City Council on October 28th, 1991.

   314. This Court also concludes that Professor Engstrom's characterization of the present ward map as containing 24 white wards, 19 African-American wards, and 7 Latino wards is inaccurate. By this Court's calculation, the present ward map contains 19 white wards, 19 African-American wards, 7 Latino wards, and 5 wards in which it is impossible for any candidate to succeed without managing to obtain bi-racial or multi-ethnic support. (10, 18, 46, 48, 49). *fn22"

  315. Therefore, Professor Engstrom's testimony demonstrated that the Barnett plaintiffs established the three Gingles preconditions.

  D. Defendants' Experts

  1. Professor Norfleet Rives

  316. Defendants called Professor Norfleet Rives, a Professor in the business school of Franklin University, to testify concerning: 1) residential concentrations, 2) fracturing of minority members, and 3) the Latino citizenship rate. Professor Rives also testified concerning the number of minority wards which might result if redistricting were performed in a race-neutral manner in which compactness was the only criterion for the contours of the wards. (DX 509, 510, 866, 867A). This Court declines to rely upon Professor Rives' testimony, other than his analysis of the residential concentrations in the City. Professor Rives was consistently unable to explain his methodologies for his fracturing and race-neutral benchmark map analyses, stating that he relied upon counsel to identify appropriate methodologies. (Tr. 6647, 6651, 6653).

  a) Residential Patterns in Chicago

  317. Professor Rives' testimony concerning residential patterns in the City was instructive and helpful in identifying the reasons for the high African-American population percentages in the African-American majority wards. As of the 1990 census, over 80% of the African-American population, either in terms of VAP or TP, resided in census blocks with at least 90% majority African-American populations. 90.0% of the African-American VAP and 90.7% of the African-American TP lived in census blocks that were at least 50% African-American. The white population in Chicago, while highly concentrated, was somewhat more diffuse. 32.5% of the white TP and 35.4% of the white VAP lived in census blocks that were at least 90% white. Despite the significantly smaller percentage of whites living in 90% white majority census blocks than African-Americans a similar percentage of whites lived in white majority census blocks -- 86.1% of the white VAP and 83.1% of the white TP lives in blocks that were at least 50% white. A slim majority of whites lived in census blocks in which whites constituted between 50 and 90% of the population -- 50.7% of the white VAP and 50.6% of the white TP resided in such census blocks. The Latino population of Chicago was much more dispersed, 60.8% of the Latino TP and 54.1% of the Latino VAP lived in census blocks that were at least 50% Latino. (DX 509,510).

  318. Accordingly, the population patterns of the City indicated that there were a significant of number of census blocks where minority residents were submerged in white majority concentrations while the vast majority of African-Americans resided in areas that were at least 90% African-American. It was unavoidable, therefore, that a significant percentage of minority voters were essentially submerged within white majority wards. This population pattern highlights the difficulty of drawing super-majority Latino wards, since only half of the Latino population resided in Latino majority wards. Professor Rives's concluded that this population pattern would result in a large number of moderately concentrated white majority wards and a slightly smaller number of highly concentrated African-American wards. (Tr. 6597).

  b) "Race-Neutral Benchmark" Maps

  319. Professor Rives' race-neutral benchmark ward maps, however, were not nearly as useful. In fact, this Court finds this analysis to have been minimally instructive. Under Professor Rives's direction a computer analyst prepared four ward maps using visual compactness, contiguity, and minimal population deviations as the only districting criteria. It insults the intelligence to contend that only four random ward maps, drawn without any consideration of the City's geography or demography, might somehow constitute a "benchmark." Redistricting is necessarily a highly intentional process -- even the random drawing process requires numerous choices. Does one use only major roads as ward boundaries? Does one begin drawing maps beginning from the north and moving south or visa versa, or does one draw from east to west? Does one tend to draw square-shaped wards or rectangular wards? Does one use an extant ward map as a template or does one begin from scratch? All of these, and more, rather minor considerations might have had significant consequences on the contours of the "race-neutral" maps. By preparing only four "race-neutral" maps, Professor Rives made no effort to draw enough maps to obtain a meaningful sample.

  320. In essence, the Gingles test already employs a benchmark map, namely the alternative maps offered by plaintiffs in an effort to show that non-dilutive maps could have been drawn. See e.g., Reno v. Bossier Parish School Board, U.S. , 117 S. Ct. 1491, 137 L. Ed. 2d 730, 1997 WL 235097, *6 (1997). The relevant benchmark of VRA § 2 is non-dilution, not randomness.

  321. Not surprisingly, there is very little support for the "race-neutral" benchmark -- other than a suggestion from defense counsel. (Tr. 6400).

  322. One scholarly article, written more than twenty years ago, when the judicial interpretation of the VRA required that intent had to be established in order to prevail on VRA § 2 claim, prepared by Professors Engstrom and Wildgen, who was a consultant to defendants, has raised the possibility of using random race-neutral maps as a benchmark. Richard Engstrom, John Wildgen, "Pruning Thorns from the Thicket: An Empirical Test of the Existence of Racial Gerrymandering," II Legislative Studies Quarterly, 465 (1977). Professors Engstrom and Wildgen, however, suggested that a large number of maps, at least 100, needed to be prepared using this method in order to obtain a significant sample.

  323. This Court, in any event, is extremely troubled by the proposition that ward maps prepared without any knowledge of the relevant jurisdiction can have much value other than as a potential tool for misadventure. Redistricting is necessarily an amalgam of pragmatic and prudential considerations and compromises; that is the nature of our representational system. Utilizing randomly drawn "benchmarks" would fail to account for the importance of the political considerations which necessarily drive the redistricting process-- for example a random "benchmark" would fail to provide for the value of drawing supermajority wards in order to cement the gains of a young, rapidly growing minority group in a city. Professor Rives' "benchmark" map also failed to account for the value of maintaining discrete neighborhoods within single political units. The redistricting process, at its best, is a crucible for considering the competing representational concerns of a community and a final map of the relevant districts is the hard fought product of the amalgam of those difficult choices. A benchmark is of no use if it disguises or fails to take account of the political realities of the redistricting process.

  c) Defendants' Fracturing Analysis

  324. Professor Rives also performed a fracturing analysis. This Court finds that analysis flawed for several reasons. First, as this Court has already discussed in the context of Professor Estrada's testimony, total population is the appropriate measure for identifying fractured population. An entire population, not voting age population, alone, is fractured just as an entire population is used to populate a ward. During the redistricting process, entire populations were placed in particular wards, not just voting age populations. When the 12th ward was drawn to snake down to pick up a portion of the Back of the Yards neighborhood the non-voting age population of that neighborhood did not remain in the 14th ward. The fracturing of VAP is not remediable, since wards are not drawn in terms of VAP. VAP is certainly relevant to a fracturing analysis, but it is relevant at a second stage when considering the effectiveness of alternative wards.

  325. Professor Rives utilized a three-step method for identifying fractured communities. First, he identified VAP racial or ethnic majority census blocks that were situated outside wards of the same majority but were adjacent to wards of the same majority. Second he added majority census blocks that were contiguous to the above boundary blocks. Third, he attempted to identify other majority blocks which could be joined with the blocks identified in the first two steps. Professor Rives chose to exclude the analysis under his third step from his reports because of that step's subjectivity. By not including his third step, Professor Rives artificially decreased the fracturing of Latinos because most of the Gage Park/Marquette Park neighborhood in the 14th, 15th and 16th is more than several blocks removed from a Latino majority ward.

  326. Professor Rives concluded that whites are fractured at a higher rate than any other group in the City. Professor Rives, however, made no effort to show how these fractured whites, particularly those on the north and the southwest sides could have been included into additional white majority wards. Professor Rives' conclusion was based upon several baffling choices -- namely his definition of the white population in the 18th ward as fractured. The "fractured" white population of the 18th ward accounts for 17,411 out of the 51,743 white VAP fractured under Rives's methodology, approximately 1/3 of the total fractured white population. This Court declines to term the white population of the 18th ward as fractured, therefore decreasing the fractured white population, accepting for now Professor Rives' definition, to 34,332. Professor Rives also defined pockets of white population in the 9th ward and the north side Latino wards as fractured since they could have augmented white majorities in other wards. The definition of these areas as fractured bore no resemblance to the Ketchum standard for fracturing which requires that in order for a population to be fractured it must be possible to create an additional ward using the fractured population. Ketchum v. Byrne, 740 F.2d 1398 at 1408, n.8.

  327. Professor Rives' analysis that the white VAP is fractured more than any other group was further skewed by his unsound methodology. Professor Rives simply tallied the total "fractured" population and then determined the proportion of that total fractured VAP represented by whites, Latinos and African-Americans. This method artificially disfavored groups with smaller total populations. Adjusting for his perplexing selections of fractured population and considering the impact of the fracturing on the population of the affected community rather than as a percentage of the total "fractured" population, Professor Rives' own calculations revealed that both African-Americans and Latinos were disproportionately fractured more than whites.

  328. This Court is also troubled by the extent to which the adoption of a VAP standard for fracturing would have no effect other than adversely affecting the Latino community. Given the 7 years which have passed since the census was taken, the Latino community, approximately 40% of which was below the voting age at the time of the 1990 census, has likely seen its VAP increase dramatically. The census is a snapshot taken at a specific moment in time, and basing the fracturing analysis on VAP would tend to submerge unduly the opportunity of a younger minority community to participate in the political process.

  329. This Court has already discussed Professor Rives' method for determining citizenship and rejected it as being unreliable. (PP 225-234). In any event, this Court has declined to adopt citizenship as the measure for the first Gingles prong.

  2. Professor Ronald Weber

  330. Professor Ronald Weber, a Professor of Government at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, testified on behalf of the defendants concerning: 1) minority political participation, and 2) polarized voting in aldermanic elections in Chicago. (DX 506,515). While Professor Weber's analysis was of value because of his inclusion of several elections which were not included in plaintiffs' analyses, this Court concludes, for the reasons stated below, that Professor Weber's analysis understates the extent to which the plaintiffs satisfied the three Gingles prongs.

  a) Minority Opportunities to Participate in the Political Process

  331. Professor Weber analyzed minority equal opportunity to participate in the political process in terms of voter registration, turnout on election day, and the number of ballots cast on election day. Professor Weber's analysis assumed that if minority members and whites have an equal opportunity to register to vote, and the two groups of voters tend to turn out and to vote and at a roughly equal rate, then minorities have an equal opportunity to participate in the political process. While this was an interesting theory, it bears no cognizable relation to VRA § 2.

  332. Professor Weber's participation analysis completely ignored the extent to which a vote cast by a minority voter would have less weight than the vote of a non-minority voter because of a dilutive districting scheme. Given his participation analysis, Professor Weber would find that minority voters had an equal opportunity to participate in the political process in a redistricting scheme which diluted minority voting strength through packing and fracturing so long as minority members registered to vote and voted at a rate equal to that of whites no matter how polarized voting might have been. An equal opportunity to participate in the political process necessarily includes, among other things, having the opportunity to elect the candidate of one's choice. Being given an chance to vote in a jurisdiction with a redistricting scheme that renders one's vote meaningless is not an equal opportunity to participate. To the extent that Professor Weber's analysis would conclude that a dilutive redistricting scheme afforded minority voters an equal opportunity to participate in the political process, that analysis is not due any weight.

  333. This Court gives little credence to Professor Weber's testimony concerning registration rates in the City of Chicago. While the registration rolls of the City are official government records maintained by the Board of Elections, Professor Weber recognized that the registration data was somewhat dubious. Most of the African-American wards had registration rates that exceeded 90%, a registration rate Professor Weber admitted that he viewed with suspicion. (Tr. 7679). The registration rolls also indicated that approximately 10% of the City's precincts had registration rates that exceeded the VAP of the precinct. (BAPX 150).

  334. Nonetheless, Professor Weber's participation analysis did contain some figures concerning minority turnout and voting rates which are of relevance to this Court's analysis of the effectiveness of possible additional minority wards.

  335. Of relevance, is Professor Weber's analysis of turnout and voting rates for whites, African-Americans, and Latinos in Chicago in the 1987, 1991 and 1995 aldermanic elections. He performed his analysis of turnout and voting rates in three manners: 1) by gross turnout of voters in wards categorized by the racial or ethnic VAP majority in the relevant ward; 2) by regression and extreme case analysis in each ward for each group insofar as possible; and 3) by citywide regression. The analysis of the gross turnout of voters was of little relevance since it provided no insight into the manner in which turnout was broken down by race or ethnic group in mixed wards.

  336. While Professor Weber's regression analysis indicated that on a citywide level white and African-American turnout and voting rates are approximately the same, there were some relevant differences in turnout rates in the wards that are the principal focus of this case. In the 10th, 18th, and 19th wards in the aldermanic elections in 1987, 1991, 1995 African-American turnout was significantly lower than white turnout in every election for which Professor Weber provided regression estimates. The differential in turnout in these wards ranged from 10% to as much as 41%. For example, according to Professor Weber's regression estimates in the 18th ward in terms of VAP: 31% of African-Americans and 68.2% of whites participated in the first round of the 1991 aldermanic elections; 27.9% of African-Americans and 69.3% of whites participated in the 1991 runoff elections; and 23.8% of African-Americans and 54.8% of whites participated in the first round of the 1995 aldermanic elections. Therefore, in the wards that are relevant to this case, African-American participation was significantly lower than white turnout. (DX 506).

  337. Professor Weber's regression and extreme case analysis established conclusively that Latino turnout and voting rates are lower than the corresponding white and African-American rates. For example in the Latino majority wards, in terms of participation as a percentage of VAP, Latino participation in aldermanic elections was significantly lower than that of whites and African-Americans. The regression estimates for the first round of the 1995 aldermanic elections in Latino majority wards starkly displays the low participation rates in those wards: Voter Participation as % of VAP in Latino Majority wards Regression Estimates Ward White African- Latino American 1 21.1 33.7 13.7 12 39.4 -- 9.6 22 -- 30.7 10.3 25 45.1 43.1 11.3 26 22.7 -- 11.0 35 23.3 -- 18.5

  (DX 506). These participation rates indicate why it was necessary to draw Latino majority wards with sizeable supermajorities in order to ensure Latino electoral success in those wards. With Latino turnout lagging so far behind the turnout rates of other groups in the City, it was necessary to draw wards with large Latino supermajority in order to give Latinos a reasonable chance of electoral success.

  b) Minority Vote Dilution

  338. Because of its numerous shortcomings which have the cumulative effect of significantly understating the extent of minority electoral cohesion, racially polarized voting, and the absence of white cross-over voting, this Court makes little use of Professor Weber's dilution analysis with the exception of his estimates of the aldermanic elections in the 46th, 48th and 49th wards. His dilution analysis was premised upon a fundamental misunderstanding of VRA § 2 and the record of minority electoral success. That minority candidates have prevailed in some wards, chiefly those in which they constituted supermajorities of the eligible electorate, does not prevent them from prevailing on a VRA § 2 claim. After all "plaintiffs challenging single-member districts may claim, not total submergence, but partial submergence; ... the chance for some success in the place of some." De Grandy, 114 S. Ct. at 2658.

  339. Professor Weber analyzed both rounds of the 1987, 1991, and 1995 aldermanic elections. He did not consider any exogenous elections although he has frequently considered such elections in other cases (Tr. 7743-64). Professor Weber did not consider exogenous elections in this case because aldermanic elections are the only non-partisan contests with a majority voting requirement. The logic of this selection criterion, however, is lost when aldermen who make the runoff round, i.e., those who are among the top two vote getters when no candidate receives a majority of the vote, are treated as winners, which Professor Weber did.

  340. In only a fraction of the elections he considered, was Professor Weber able to estimate African-American and white voting behavior by means of both ecological regression and extreme case analysis. The same was true of Latino and white voting behavior as well.

  341. The value of Professor Weber's estimates of voting behavior was further limited by the relevant information which he choose to omit from his analysis. Professor Weber failed to identify the race of the candidates, thereby making it difficult to account for the response of minority and white voters when they were presented with a choice between a white and a minority candidate. It is probative to this Court's consideration whether African-American or Latino voters express a preference, when given an opportunity, to vote for minority candidates but are frustrated from prevailing by the absence of white crossover voting. Professor Weber's analytic technique made an investigation of this phenomenon impossible. Professor Weber, in fact, downplayed the relevance of white crossover voting. (Tr. 7804-07). The Professor, however, during cross examination did recognize that white crossover voting is minimal in Chicago. (Tr. 7805).

  342. Even more troubling were some of the conditions Professor Weber inserted into his analysis of voting patterns. Weber limited the cohesiveness requirement to cohesiveness behind a single candidate. For Weber, an electorate is cohesive and has an identifiable candidate of choice only if at least 60% of the relevant electorate cast their ballots for a single candidate in a two candidate race, or at least 50% of the relevant electorate cast their ballots for a single candidate who received at least 60% of the vote cast for the top two candidates in a multi-candidate primary. Professor Weber further defined cohesiveness by breaking it down into strong cohesion with levels of support of 80% constituting strong cohesion and levels of support of between 60 and 79% constituting moderate cohesion.

  343. There is virtually no support for this interpretation of cohesiveness in the case law or in the scholarly literature. Besides the fact that this standard was troubling insofar as it implied that there was something undesirable about encouraging people to run for public office, it completely ignored the character of aldermanic elections which quite often tend to have a free-for-all character with many candidates frequently running in a single ward. Professor Weber's cohesion analysis, however, was of some relevance to this Court's consideration of the totality of the circumstances insofar as it was extremely instructive as to the political realities of the relevant wards. By failing to look, at least, at the combined level of minority support for minority candidates and the combined level of white support for white candidates, Professor Weber provided an inaccurate view of minority political cohesion and racially or ethnically polarized voting.

  344. Absent his cohesiveness requirement, the outcomes of Professor Weber's regression analyses would have been quite different. Professor Weber found Latino cohesion in only 25 of the 40 elections he analyzed. In these elections, voting by whites defeated Latinos in those elections only three times. Without his cohesion requirement, whites and Latinos would have differed in their preferred candidates in 17 of 40 elections, and in the majority of those elections the white candidate of choice prevailed. Latino candidates prevailed in Latino supermajority wards. A similar pattern was revealed with respect to African-American candidates.

  345. Defendants' contention that Professor Weber's methodology paid greater heed to the "usually defeats" language of Gingles is disingenuous. The "usually defeat" language in Gingles refers to white bloc voting which acts to block the minority candidate of choice. This necessarily requires an analysis of the extent of white crossover voting, something which was impossible to ascertain with Professor Weber's methodology. Nor did it make any sense to claim that minority candidates of choice were not "usually defeated" because they prevailed in majority-minority wards, if they are consistently defeated in wards in which they do not constitute a majority.

  E. Summary of Expert Conclusions

  346. In summary, this Court reaches the following key conclusions, in the light of the relevant legal standards, based upon the expert testimony and reports.

  347. The Barnett and the Bonilla plaintiff classes have each satisfied the three Gingles prongs.

  348. Through the testimony of Professor Estrada, the Bonilla plaintiffs established that the Latino community is sufficiently large and geographically compact enough to constitute a majority in an additional ward. By means of joining together Latino majority blocks which are not presently in a Latino majority ward and decreasing the Latino population majorities in the existing Latino majority wards, it is possible to create an additional Latino majority ward on the southwest side of the City.

  349. Through the testimony of Professor Lichtman, the Bonilla plaintiffs successfully established that Latino voters consistently prefer Latino candidates and that, where conditions permit, white voters vote as a block sufficiently to defeat usually the Latino preferred candidate. With the exception of the 1991 aldermanic election in the 10th ward, defendants did not offer any alternative explanation for polarized voting wholly unrelated to race or ethnicity.

  350. Latino candidates have emerged victorious in aldermanic elections in wards with Latino VAP majorities as low as 59.5%. Latino candidates have also emerged victorious in judicial elections in districts with bare Latino VAP majorities, although such elections have different outcome rules which minimizes the probative value of such elections as an indicator of the likelihood of Latino electoral success in an aldermanic election.

  351. Latino voter turnout in aldermanic elections is consistently less than half that of whites.

  352. Given the very low Latino turnout rates, and the lower Latino majorities in the Bonilla alternative wards on the southwest side, a Latino candidate would not be ensured victory in additional southwest side Latino majority wards. In particular, the Latino candidate of choice would likely not prevail in a ward which joined together the Back of the Yards, Marquette Park and Gage Park neighborhoods.

  353. In general, with some exceptions, the Latino community has a distinct socio-economic community of interest characterized by its more recent immigrant status, its comparatively high rate of participation in the labor force, its comparatively lower education rates, its comparatively high rates of households with children, its comparatively low per capita income (but without some of the extreme poverty of some of the African-American majority areas), and the high rate of persons for whom English is not the first language.

  354. Through the testimony of Professor Engstrom, the Barnett plaintiffs established that the African-American community is sufficiently large and geographically compact enough to constitute a majority in an additional ward. An additional African-American majority ward could be drawn on the southwest side replacing the 18th ward. Reconfiguring the 18th and 19th wards would likely require significant alterations to the traditional boundaries of the adjoining wards or would require resorting to extremely long narrow, oddly shaped wards. An additional African-American majority ward could also be drawn on the southeast side, but only at the cost of dividing the Latino and white population concentrations in that area of the City between several wards.

  355. Through the testimony of Professor Engstrom, the Barnett plaintiffs also established that African-American voters consistently prefer to vote for African-American candidates and that whites vote sufficiently as a block usually to defeat the African-American preferred candidate.

  356. In general, African-American participation rates in aldermanic elections are on a par with white participation rates. The 18th ward is an exception to this rule. In the 18th ward African-American turnout rate was approximately half that of whites in the 1995 aldermanic elections. Additionally, while the 18th ward aldermanic election in 1995 was polarized, with over 70% of African-Americans voting for African-American candidates and only 4.5% of whites voting for African-American candidates, a white candidate was nonetheless the leading vote getter (as estimated by homogenous precinct analysis) among African-Americans.

  357. Based upon socio-economic data, there are identifiable areas of the African-American community with distinct communities of interest in areas centered around the west side and the center of the south side. In general, areas further removed from these core areas have less in common with this distinct community of interest.

  358. In general, the expert analyses of minority communities of interest was less than satisfactory. Because of questionable data selection parameters, the analyses provided little more than rough generalities.

  359. In the far north side lakefront wards, where no racial or ethnic group constitutes a decisive majority of the population, African-American and Latino voters have been pivotal members of the electoral coalitions pieced together by the incumbent aldermen.

  360. As established by the testimony of Professor Rives, the contours of the present ward map were, in part, determined by the residential patterns in Chicago. Over 80% of the African-American population lives in census blocks with 90% African-American populations. Most whites live in white majority census blocks, but only one-third of whites live in census blocks that are 90% white. Only approximately 54% of the Latino VAP, meanwhile, live in Latino majority census blocks. This pattern results in roughly equal numbers of white and African-American majority wards and a proportionally smaller number of Latino majority wards.


  361. Although both the Barnett and Bonilla plaintiffs have successfully established the three Gingles factors, this Court's examination of the relevant circumstances is not yet complete. This Court, rather, must engage in a comprehensive canvassing of the relevant facts. De Grandy, 512 U.S. 997 at 1013-13, 114 S. Ct. 2647 at 2657-58. This Court must examine all the relevant evidence which in the totality of the circumstances might indicate whether plaintiffs have less opportunity than other members of the electorate to participate in the political process. Id.

  362. In its consideration of the totality of the circumstances, this Court will examine factors including but not limited to the nine factors set out by the Senate Judiciary Committee's Report accompanying the 1982 amendments to the VRA. In connection with its analysis of the totality of the circumstances, this Court will also consider evidence concerning the proportionality of representation and the practical political concerns which guided the drawing of the present ward map. In short, this Court will consider any factor relevant to the ability of minorities to participate in the political process in Chicago.

  A. The Senate Factors

  363. This Court's canvassing of the totality of the circumstances surrounding the extent to which the present ward map might limit minority participation in the political process necessarily begins with a review of the nine factors set out in the Senate Judiciary Committee Report accompanying the 1982 amendments to the VRA. De Grandy, 512 U.S. at 1010, n. 9, 114 S. Ct. at 2656, n. 9.

  1. Senate Factor One -- Official Discrimination Affecting the Right to Vote

  364. Thirteen years ago the Seventh Circuit affirmed a district court determination that the ward map of the City of Chicago violated the VRA on the basis of retrogression and the manipulation of racial voting populations. Ketchum, 740 F.2d at 1405-6. In addition, a three judge panel had previously found intentional discrimination in connection with the 1981 redistricting of state legislative districts in Chicago which limited both Latino and African-American representation. Rybicki I, 574 F. Supp. 1082 at 1108-12.

  365. Approximately twenty-five years ago, an injunction issued compelling the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners to provide voting instructions and assistance in the Spanish language. Plaintiffs in that case successfully established a likelihood of success on the merits with respect to their claim that the absence of Spanish language ballot materials limited the ability of Spanish-speaking persons to vote. Puerto-Rican Organization for Political Action v. Kusper, 350 F. Supp. 606, 611 (N.D.Ill. 1972), aff'd, 490 F.2d 575 (7th Cir. 1973).

   366. This evidence, however, is too remote in time to establish a present impediment to minority participation in the political process. It is always difficult to draw a bright line demarcating the ongoing effects of past official discrimination, but in this Court's conclusion based upon the testimony and exhibits, these past practices have been sufficiently attenuated to have mitigated their present effects. See Sanchez v. State of Colorado, 97 F.3d 1303 at 1323.

  367. There was, however, evidence of continuing official impediments to Latino political participation. Juan Andrade of the Midwest Northeast Voter Registration and Education Project testified, via deposition designation, that there are such continuing impediments, chief among which is the periodic purging of the voter registration rolls. (Andrade Dep. Des. 246ff). Given the low turnout rates of Latino voters, Latino voters are purged from the registration rolls more frequently than other voters. It is difficult to fathom precisely how legitimately purging inactive voters from the rolls of registered voters might, in fact, limits the right of Latino voters to participate in the political process. Nor did the Bonilla plaintiffs make any effort to reconcile their contention that the purging of the voter rolls adversely affects Latino voting rights with the Barnett plaintiffs' contention that for African-Americans the registration rolls are inflated. (Tr. 7502-19).

  368. Nor do Congressman Gutierrez's and State Senator Garcia's testimony concerning the Democratic Party candidate slating process accrue to the Bonilla plaintiffs' benefit in establishing the existence of official discrimination. The slating process is the process by which party officials, including Democratic ward committeemen, decide Democratic Party support for candidate for elected office. (Tr. 1197-98-Gutierrez). Senator Garcia observed that being the slated candidate of the Democratic Party is vital for political success in Chicago. (Tr. 1641). Latino candidates, absent support from a figure such as the Mayor, have never been slated in a white-majority ward or district. (Tr. 1642). Besides its value in slating, the control of a Democratic ward organization is important in being able to win election to office. Latinos, however, have not traditionally been able to develop strong ward organizations in wards where whites are a majority of the population. (Tr. 1199-1200-Gutierrez). The creation of the three additional Latino wards in the present ward map gave the Latino community the opportunity to increase its leverage in the Democratic slating process on the county level and to increase its grass-roots level of organization at the ward and precinct levels, all of which are important for continuing Latino political progress and increased participation in the Chicago political process.

  369. This testimony also indicates the importance of drawing Latino majority wards with sizeable Latino majorities. The creation of three additional Latino majority wards in the present ward map gave the Latino community an opportunity to create additional strong Latino ward organizations. If the new Latino wards had not been drawn with sizeable majorities, it would have been more difficult to develop the strong Latino ward organizations which are a necessary building block for political success in Chicago. For example, in the Democratic ward committeeman race for the 12th ward in 1992 there was a heated contest for the committeemen seat since the previous committeemen from the old white majority 12th ward did not simply cede his seat. It likely would have been difficult to develop successful Latino-oriented ward organizations in the Bonilla alternative wards in which Latinos would have been required to supplant pre-existing, largely extant white-dominated ward organizations.

  370. To the extent that Latino participation in the political process was once limited by the Democratic Party slating process and by the comparative weakness of Latino Democratic Party organizations, those impediments have likely now been remedied by the opportunities to develop new Latino ward organizations in the new Latino majority wards.

  371. This Court, concludes, therefore, that plaintiffs have failed to establish any present or continuing effect of past electoral discrimination.

   2. Senate Factor Two -- Polarized Voting

  372. This Court has previously concluded that both the Barnett and the Bonilla plaintiffs have established the existence of racially polarized voting in the City of Chicago. (PP 236-252-Bonilla; PP 288-302-Barnett).

  3. Senate Factor Three -- Procedures which Enhance the Opportunities for Discrimination

  373. Plaintiffs introduced no evidence and have proposed no findings that there are voting procedures in the City of Chicago which enhance the opportunities for discrimination.

  4. Senate Factor Four -- Slating

  374. Since aldermanic elections are non-partisan, the Democratic Party slating process is not of direct relevance to this case. To the extent that the slating process is coterminous with control of a ward's Democratic Party organization which provides access to campaign resources, the access of Latinos to ward organizations is relevant in this Court's canvassing of the totality of the circumstances. Traditionally in Chicago, control of a ward organization is important to winning election at the aldermanic level.

  375. The Barnett plaintiffs introduced no evidence and have proposed no findings that the slating process limits African-American access to the political process.

  376. As this Court has already found, the additional Latino majority wards have had the beneficial effect of encouraging the development of Latino ward organizations and have given the Latino political community increased opportunities to participate in the slating process. (PP 368-370).

  Senate Factor 5 -- Effects of Discrimination on the Ability to Participate in the Political Process

  377. This Senate Factor asks two related questions: 1) whether minority members in Chicago have lower socioeconomic opportunities, and 2) whether these lower socioeconomic opportunities impair the ability of minority members to participate in the political process. Both the Barnett and the Bonilla plaintiffs established, in very broad terms, the existence of socioeconomic disparities in education, employment and other areas between minority members and most of the white community. Based upon these broad conclusions and generalities this Court is asked to infer that the socio-economic disparities hinder minority ability to participate effectively in the political process. Courts have long recognized that historic discrimination is relevant to voting rights cases because "'disproportionate educations, employment, income level and living conditions arising from past discrimination tend to depress minority political participation.'" LULAC v. Clements, 999 F.2d 831, 866-67 (5th Cir. 1993)(en banc), cert. denied, 114 S. Ct. 878 (1994), quoting S.Rep. 94-417 at 29 n. 114. No causal nexus between lower socio-economic status and lower political participation need be proved. Niagara Falls, 65 F.3d 1002 at 1021. This factor, therefore, directs this Court only to ascertain if there is a correlation between low minority voter turnout and not whether there is a causal connection between the two.

  378. This Court also takes notice of the history of employment discrimination against African-Americans and Latinos in the City of Chicago and the continuing need for affirmative action programs. McNamara v. City of Chicago, No. 93 C 1093 (N.D. Ill. March 18, 1997). See also, Ketchum, 740 F.2d at 1405-6.

  379. In very general terms, the Bonilla plaintiffs successfully established that Latinos, in general, tend to have jobs that pay less than those in the white community. Latinos tend to have a lower median family household income and have a significantly lower median per-capita income than non-Latinos ($ 6,214.00 as compared to $ 10,726.00 for non-Latinos). (BOPX 21). The median per capita income of Latinos is the lowest in the City even though the Latino community has high rates of participation in the labor market. The low median income of Latinos is likely a function of the low rate of high school graduation among Latinos -- 70.5% of non-Latinos over 25 years of age are high school graduates while only 40.8% of Latinos over 25 years of age are high school graduates. (BOPX 21). Part of the low median Latino income is also due to the young age of the community and the high rate of households with children. Latinos are also much more likely than non-Latinos to have a first language other than English. The Latino community is also very young with the highest rate of families with children of any racial or ethnic group in the City. (BOPX 21). As of the 1990 census, approximately 37% of the Latino population was under 18 years of age.

  380. Latinos, as a group, at the present time turn out to vote at rates significantly lower than whites. Latinos turnout, as a percentage of the Latino VAP, at a rate estimated to be one-quarter of the rate of white turnout in citywide elections. (BOPX 76). In their testimony, Congressman Gutierrez and Senator Garcia suggested that Latinos experience socio-economic conditions which uniquely affect the Latino community including difficulties in access to education, to bilingual education, and adequate housing. (Tr. 1189-90-Gutierrez; 1623-Garcia). The unique characteristics of the Latino community, chiefly the lower educational levels, the language barriers, the heavy concentration in lower paying service oriented jobs, as well as the difficulty faced by recent immigrants to adequate, can reasonably be inferred to have an effect on Latino turnout rates.

  381. The trial testimony established, however, that the present ward map was prepared in a manner intended to account for the very low Latino turnout rates. In short, this Court has concluded that the administration and the Latino Committee reached a compromise calling for seven Latino wards with high supermajorities rather than eight Latino majority wards with lower majorities in order to adjust for the low rates of Latino electoral participation. By agreeing to seven wards, the parties were able to ensure Latino representation in the City Council roughly proportional to the Latino VAP, while a similar rate of success would not have been as likely if 8 Latino majority wards had been included in the present ward map.

  382. The present ward map, therefore, was drawn so as to compensate for the low Latino turnout rates which might be a residual consequence of the Latino socio-economic condition in the City. It is difficult to ascertain how the remedy proposed by the Bonilla plaintiffs, the drawing of an additional Latino ward which would lower the magnitude of the Latino majorities in the wards on the near southwest side (the area of the City with the lowest Latino turnout rate), would ameliorate the effects of low turnout rather than exacerbate those effects.

  383. With respect to the claims of the Barnett plaintiffs, Dr. Taylor's testimony established in the most generalized manner that, as a whole, African-American have a less affluent socio-economic status than do whites. Dr. Taylor's testimony established that African-Americans have a median family income that is approximately half that of whites. The African-American community also has higher rates of families with children in poverty and of single-parent families with children than any other racial or ethnic groups. (BAPX 80). African-Americans, on average, also have lower rates of educational attainment than whites -- 63.1% of adult African-Americans have achieved a high-school degree and only 10.5% of African-Americans have attained a BA degree. A higher percentage of African-Americans than whites rely on the Chicago Public School System for their children's education. (BAPX 80).

  384. There was, however, little credible evidence to suggest that African-Americans participate in aldermanic elections at a rate significantly lower than whites, with the exception of the declining turnout in the 18th ward. Nor did the evidence suggest that the differential between African-American and white fundraising in aldermanic elections was not due chiefly to incumbency and the number of candidates involved in elections. (BAPX 109).

  6. Senate Factor 6 -- Racial Appeals

  385. In the past a substantial number of aldermanic and other municipal elections in Chicago were characterized by strong racial appeals (Tr. 3550-41, 3557-59-Kleppner). The most egregious example of a political campaign infected by racial appeals was in the general election campaign for mayor in 1983. That campaign was characterized by extensive use of the most blatant forms of race-baiting. (Tr. 3550, 3559). There has, however, been little evidence, other than very isolated examples in the 46th ward, of the use of racial appeals in more recent campaigns. (Tr. 7195-Atkins).

  386. Nor was the referendum campaign which resulted in the electoral approval of the present ward map marked by racial appeals. This Court has previously found that the referendum campaign flyers introduced by plaintiffs (PJX 56, 57), did not make racial appeals. (PP 171, 172).

  387. It is extremely difficult to demarcate clearly the possible continuing effects of past racial campaign appeals. The plaintiffs have, however, presented insufficient evidence to establish that racial appeals remain a component of contemporary political campaigns to an extent sufficient to warrant remedial action pursuant to VRA § 2.

  7. Senate Factor 7 -- Minority Representation

  388. The "extent to which minority group members have been elected to public office in the jurisdiction" is one of the most important Senate Report factors, together with racial polarization. Gingles, 478 U.S. 30 at 48, n. 15, 106 S. Ct. 2752 at 2765, n. 15. Thanks in large part to the drawing of majority-minority wards intended to ameliorate the continuing effects of polarized voting, both African-Americans and Latinos enjoy representation in the City Council that is roughly proportional to their share of the voting age population of Chicago. In addition, African-American and Latino candidates have been successful on several occasions in being elected to City-wide and county-wide offices, including the City Treasurer and Cook County Board President. The relevance of the substantial proportionality of minority representation in the City Council is discussed below at greater length in Section IV,B of this Opinion.

  8. Senate Factor 8 -- Responsiveness

  389. The Senate Report delegated evidence of governmental responsiveness to minority needs to a secondary role. S.Rep. 94-417 at 29. The process of divining governmental responsiveness to minority needs should be undertaken with some reluctance since it requires deciphering which policy steps indeed qualify as responses to the needs of the minority community. Niagara Falls, 65 F.3d at 1023, n. 24.

  390. There was substantial evidence that the City is responsive to the needs of minority members. African-Americans and Latinos hold important and influential positions of power within the City's government, as chairmen or vice-chairmen of City Council committees, and within Cook County government. Latinos and African-Americans also serve in several highly influential appointed offices in Chicago. In positions such as these minority leaders enjoy input in guiding the course of public policy.

  391. As this Court has discussed in its review of Dr. Lewis' testimony on behalf of the Barnett plaintiffs, it is manifestly difficult to ascertain the extent to which a particular policy initiative qualifies as a response to minority community desires. It is possible that several competing pieces of legislation are designed to further the same end but because they seek to effectuate that end in different manners, or they express their ends in different tones, they receive different levels of support in the majority and minority communities. Dr. Lewis' report glanced over the nuances between competing council initiatives and the various gradations of interest within the community. Certainly there are, at the extremes, different poles of interest in public policy initiatives within the Latino, the African-American, and white communities but most people, of any race or ethnicity, share, according to Dr. Lewis's survey data, generally similar concerns. Dr. Lewis's method was incapable of presenting anything more than the most generalized version of the needs of the minority community. Nor did his report establish that white aldermen are unresponsive to the needs of the minority communities, although they may frequently differ in tone from their minority counterparts.

  392. There was, substantial testimony, however, that elected officials, of any race, are responsive to the needs of African-American and Latino voters. This Court is satisfied with the testimony of Congressmen Gutierrez that with some exceptions, non-Latino aldermen are as responsive to the interests of Latinos as are Latino elected officials even though they do not share the same commonality of experience. (Tr. 1195-96). Alderman Burke testified credibly that he makes every effort to respond to the needs of his Latino constituents. (Tr. 6830-40-Burke). This Court is also satisfied with the testimony of Aldermen Murphy and Rugai, of the 18th and 19th wards, that they attempt to represent the interests of their white and African-American constituents and attempt to provide services equally throughout their wards. (Tr. 6098, 6104-06-Murphy; Tr. 6287, 6309-Rugai). Additionally, there is not necessarily any correlation between the race of an alderman and the responsiveness of an alderman to minority interests. To the extent that there is a distinct, identifiable African-American policy agenda, Aldermen Schiller and Moore, of the 46th and 49th wards, are considered to be more responsive in many instances than minority aldermen. (Tr. 5302-Steele).

  393. It is important to recall, that in its present makeup no racial or ethnic group enjoys a majority of the seats of the City council. To the extent that there are distinct public policy needs which break down along racial or ethnic lines, it is necessary to compromise with aldermen of other racial or ethnic groups in order to form a majority of the City Council. No community, minority or otherwise, is entitled to a free legislative pass to further its policy needs untempered by compromise or debate.

  9. Senate Factor 9 -- Tenuous Boundaries

  394. Plaintiffs contend that the present ward map contains tenuous boundaries which evidenced substantial manipulation in order to protect white incumbents. This Court has already discussed plaintiffs claims of boundary manipulation in connection with the alleged protection of incumbencies at PP 176-184.

  B. Substantial Proportionality of Representation under the Present Ward Map

  395. According to the 1990 Census, the population of Chicago is 38.6% white, 37.9% African-American, and 19.6% Latino in terms of total population. In terms of voting age population, Chicago is 46% white, 40% African-American, and 11% Latino. As of the 1990 census, the Latino community was by far the youngest group in the City, approximately 37% of the Latino population was not yet of voting age. Similarly, approximately only 56% of Latinos were United States citizens. Given the seven years which have elapsed since the census, and the intervening citizenship amnesty, both the Latino voting age population and the number of Latinos eligible to vote have no doubt increased substantially, even dramatically. Another significant trend revealed by the 1990 census, which will likely have an effect on future ward remaps, is the continuing growth of Latino population and the concomitant decrease in the African-American and white percentage of the population in the City.

  396. The present ward map contains the following number of wards with total population majorities and voting-age population majorities in terms of racial and ethnic groups: Wards by Total Population Majority Racial or Ethnic Number of Wards % of City Council Group Majority White 18 36% African-American 20 40% Latino 7 14% No Majority 5 10% Wards by Voting Age Population Majority Racial or Ethnic Number of Wards % of City Council Group Majority White 23 46% African-American 20 40% Latino 7 14%

  397. When the voting patterns in the wards in the present ward map are taken into consideration, the present ward map has 19 white wards, 19 African-American wards, 7 Latino wards and 5 wards which have tended to elect white aldermen but in which it is impossible for any candidate to succeed without managing to obtain bi-racial or multi-ethnic support (these are the 46th, 48th, 49th, 10th and 18th wards). Considered in these terms 38% of the wards are "white wards", 38% of the wards are "African-American wards", 14% of the wards are "Latino wards", and 10% of the wards are bi-racial or multi-ethnic wards.

  398. By any of these measures, the present ward map has created wards in which whites, African-Americans, and Latinos enjoy majorities, either in terms of total population, voting age population or electoral influence, which are roughly proportional to each group's share of the City's population. African-American and Latino voters enjoy proportionality both in terms of majority wards and in terms of their representation in the City Council.

  399. Thus, by any relevant measure, minority members enjoy political effectiveness in a number of wards which is substantially proportional to their voting age population. See De Grandy, 512 U.S. at 1014, 114 S. Ct. at 2658.

  400. While the present ward map was drawn in a manner giving whites, African-Americans and Latinos proportional electoral opportunities, the inquiry cannot end here. Proportionality is never a safe harbor because an inflexible rule would run counter to the command of VRA § 2 that the presence or absence of a violation be assessed based upon the totality of the circumstances." De Grandy, 512 U.S. at 1017, 114 S. Ct. at 2660. This Court must inquire whether the totality of facts, including the history of discrimination, portend any dilutive effects from the present ward map which includes majority-minority wards in substantial proportionality to the minority's share of voting age population. Id., at 2658.

  401. Plaintiffs have succeeded in establishing the three Gingles preconditions, but it is necessary to consider what those factors mean in the proper context. The first Gingles precondition, that it is possible to draw additional minority wards, does not demand the maximization of minority districts. In fact, "reading the first Gingles condition in effect to define dilution as a failure to maximize in the face of bloc voting causes its own dangers and they are not to be courted." De Grandy, 512 U.S. at 1016, 114 S. Ct. at 2659. It is possible to suspect vote dilution from political famine, but one is not entitled to suspect dilution from the mere failure to guarantee a political feast. Id. While plaintiffs do not, strictly speaking, necessarily seek to maximize the number of majority-minority wards, the same caution is relevant in this case where the Latino and African-American communities already enjoy substantial proportionality. That it is possible to draw additional majority-minority wards does not mean that VRA § 2 requires the drawing of such additional wards.

  402. Plaintiffs have also established that both Latinos and African-Americans are politically cohesive (Gingles prong 2) and that, where it was possible to determine, whites voted sufficiently as a bloc to enable them usually to defeat the minority's preferred candidate Gingles prong 3). Plaintiffs also successfully established that minority voters tend to prefer to vote for minority candidates, that white voters trend to prefer to vote for white candidates, and that the absence of white crossover voting usually operates to defeat the minority candidate of choice. Certainly there have been some significant minority political successes in City-wide elections, and similarly, there have been significant minority political successes in wards in which minority members, both Latino and African-American, constitute a VAP majority.

  403. This Court must note that the Gingles analysis, while valuable, is applied only with great difficulty to a multi-district jurisdiction such as Chicago. The Gingles analysis was originally crafted in order to assist courts in determining whether an at-large election scheme diluted the abilities of minority voters to participate in the political process and thereby violated VRA § 2. The Gingles analysis fits quite readily to at-large electoral schemes.

  404. While Gingles was applied, without modification, to multi-district electoral schemes in Voinovich, 507 U.S. 146, 113 S. Ct. 1149, 122 L. Ed. 2d 500 (1993), the test does not fit very well to the aldermanic ward map of Chicago. It is nearly always possible in a jurisdiction as large and diverse as Chicago, to draw additional hypothetical majority-minority districts -- this is simply a result of the fact that lines can always be drawn differently and differences of opinion concerning the manner in which boundary lines can be drawn will almost always befall any substantial community. Also troubling to this Court, is the manner in which the analytical techniques used to establish the second two Gingles prongs tend to presume the existence of racially polarized voting and presuppose that minority voters can best be represented only by minority candidates. Voters behave the way they do for many reasons ranging across the spectrum of social and economic interests and affinities.

  405. It is doubtful that the drawing of enclosures, in the form of district boundaries, around racial or ethnic groups is really the best way to hasten the end of polarized voting. Yet in their present guise the relevant standards for VRA § 2 require this Court to scrutinize every concentration of majority-minority census blocks that conceivably could have been drawn into different wards.

  406. The testimony, both lay and expert, focused on particular areas of the City. The Barnett claims were focused on the southwest and southeast sides. The Barnett plaintiffs also focused, to a much lesser extent, on the west side. The Bonilla claims were also focused on the southwest and southeast sides. To a lesser extent, the Bonilla claims focused on the possibility of including additional Latino majority blocks into the northwest side Latino wards. In order to evaluate these claims, it is important to consider the specific considerations which guided the drawing of the present ward map in each of these areas. It is also important, however, to keep in mind the extent to which the particular ward boundaries, as well as the particular changes in the ward map proposed by both plaintiff classes, relate to the present ward map taken as a whole.

  407. In an effort to bring together some of the relevant factors evidencing whether minority members have less opportunity to participate in the political process, this Court will now consider the claims of the Barnett and Bonilla plaintiffs in terms of the specific areas in which they allege that minority voting strength has been diluted.

  1. Barnett Plaintiffs' Claims

  408. Given the demographic patterns of Chicago, the Barnett claims were focused entirely on the region of the City south of North Avenue at 1600 North. In the 20 ward (wards 1, 26, 30-33, 35, 36, 38-41, 43-50) area which for the most part is to the north of North Avenue, the African-American population is only approximately 6.12% of the total VAP and approximately 7% of the total population. This 20 ward region has a total population of 1,113,896, approximately 40% of the City's total population. This is relevant only insofar as the residential pattern of the City affected the extent to which additional African-American majority wards could be drawn.

  409. In the remaining 30 wards (wards 2-25, 27-29, 34, 37 and 42) the total population is 23.41% white and 59.71% African-American and the voting age population is 27.44% white and 57.52% African-American. Eight of the wards in this region (including the 18th which has African-American VAP and total population majorities and the 10th ward which has a 50.344% white VAP majority) have white aldermen -- 6 of these wards have white total population majorities and 7 have white VAP majorities. Therefore, African-Americans enjoy electoral control of a proportional share of the wards in the southern two-thirds of the City. There are, chiefly in the 18th and 19th wards, several sizeable blocks of African-American population that could have been included in wards in which African-American candidates are ensured political success.

  a) Southwest Side

  410. The wards on the far southwest side of the City, primarily the 18th and 19th wards, are a prime focus of the Barnett plaintiffs' claims. The boundaries of the 18th and 19th wards changed very little from their previous contours under the present ward map. Over the past decade, the African-American population in these two wards has risen. At the time of the Ketchum settlement, the 18th ward had a total population that was 50.03% African-American and a VAP that was 46.60% African-American. According to the 1990 census, the 18th ward has a total population that is 55.382% African-American and a VAP that is 53.632% African-American. At the time of the Ketchum settlement, the 19th ward had a total population that was 14.66% African-American and a VAP that was 12.50% African-American. Today, using the 1990 census figures, the 19th ward has a total population that is 18.691% African-American and a VAP that is 17.629% African-American.

  411. While the present 18th ward has an African-American majority, both in terms of total and voting age population, it has never elected an African-American candidate. A combination of polarized voting patterns and the abundance of African-American aldermanic candidates, which has splintered African-American voting strength, have prevented African-American candidates from succeeding in this ward. In the 18th ward, the recent success of the present alderman in gaining African-American support has also contributed to the inability of African-American candidates to succeed at the polls. In the 1995 aldermanic elections Alderman Murphy was estimated to have received as many votes from African-American voters as the leading African-American candidate. The inability of African-American voters to coalesce around a single candidate, and the preference of approximately one-third of the African-American voters for the white incumbent in a ward in which African-Americans are a majority, do not constitute sufficient bases for significantly altering the ward map on the far southwest side.

  412. The Barnett plaintiffs successfully established that it would have been possible to draw an additional African-American ward in this area of the City. Adding an additional African-American ward to the southwest side would require significant alterations of traditional ward boundaries and, in several of the Barnett alternatives, drawing long narrow wards extending in a corridor from the western boundary of the City to the Dan Ryan Expressway in the center of the south side or by removing nearly every African-American majority census block from the 18th and 19th wards and combining the white population of the 13th, 18th and 19th wards into two wards.

  413. While some of the initial ward maps prepared by Judge Ruble-Murphy contained reconstituted 18th and 19th wards, those were preliminary maps. As corner wards that were close to ideal population, the reconfiguration of these wards would have set off a domino reaction requiring the alteration of all the adjoining wards as well. Throughout the City, only minimal changes were made to corner wards, a practice that was followed with respect to the 18th and 19th wards.

  414. Removing the African-American population from the 19th ward would also have run afoul of traditional districting criteria such as respecting the ward's traditional boundaries and paying attention to natural and manmade landmarks. The traditional eastern end of the 19th ward, dating back at least to the 1970's is a very sizeable rail yard dividing the northeast edge of the 19th ward from the 21st ward.

  415. The 18th and 19th wards are two of less than a dozen wards, the 4th, 5th, 15th, 27th, 29th, 46th, 48th, and the 49th are the others, in which there are sizeable (at least 15% concentrations of both whites and African-Americans). Drawing wards in which the races are completely separated, while ensuring minority political success, is in the end a politics of the second best' since such ward boundaries are explicitly premised upon a race-conscious calculus. See De Grandy 114 S. Ct. at 2661. Crafting wards in which all members of the community, minorities and majorities are forced to engage in political pulling and hauling and trading in an effort to find common political ground is a project that should be encouraged. It will be in such racially mixed wards that voters finally learn to overcome patterns of polarized voting behavior and begin to practice the dynamics of give and take and of the balancing of interests. See De Grandy 114 S. Ct. at 2661.

  416. While the experiment in crafting a multi-racial 18th ward has not been entirely successful given the continuing presence of polarized voting and the lack of African-American electoral success in the ward, there is still reason to be optimistic concerning the future of the ward as presently constituted. Alderman Murphy successfully mobilized his constituents in support of retaining the existing ward boundaries more effectively than any other alderman. (Tr. 6081-84). Alderman Murphy also was the leading vote getter, as estimated by extreme case analysis, among African-American voters in the 1995 aldermanic election. While African-Americans, as a whole, voted for African-American aldermanic candidates at a rate estimated at approximately 73%, Alderman Murphy was nonetheless estimated as the leading single vote-getter from the African-American electorate. While African-Americans in the 18th ward overwhelmingly supported the Fair Map at referendum, they did so at a rate estimated to have been lower than that of other African-American voters.

  417. This Court is also satisfied with Alderman Murphy's testimony that he attempts to provide city services and allocate funds equally to every area of the 18th ward. (Tr. 6153). This Court was impressed that Alderman Murphy is an aggressive and energetic representative of all the residents of the 18th ward. This Court did not give as much weight to the few hearsay accounts of constituent complaints.

  418. Nor does this Court find that there is any basis for redrawing the 18th and 19th wards based on socio-economic considerations. The eastern ends of the 18th and 19th wards share socio-economic traits with both the white majority areas to the west and the African-American majority areas to the east, and function as a transition between those two areas. The aldermen of the 18th and 19th wards credibly testified that the eastern ends of their respective wards are generally more affluent, and have higher concentrations of single family homes, than the areas in adjoining wards to the east. There is, therefore, no reason, based upon socio-economic conditions, to transfer the eastern ends of the 18th and 19th wards into African-American majority wards.

  b) West Side

  419. VRA § 2 also does not demand the drawing of an additional African-American majority ward on the west side. While it is theoretically possible to draw an additional African-American majority ward on the west side, doing so would have required either sizeable population deviations or would have required ward boundaries which might run afoul of compactness requirements. (Tr. 4840-42-Engstrom). The west side African-American community is sandwiched to the north and to the south between the two largest concentrations of Latino population in the City. Using Latino population as filler to populate an additional west side African-American ward would likely run afoul of VRA § 2. Furthermore, the wards at the eastern and western ends of the west side African-American community are already irregularly shaped and/or contain sizeable white and Latino populations. The present 2nd ward is manifestly irregularly shaped extending from the near south side lakefront to Western Avenue and Washington Boulevard, avoiding the neighboring Latino community to the west and south of the ward, and is 13.028% white in terms of total population. The present 27th ward stretches from Pulaski Avenue on the west to LaSalle Street on the east snaking through industrial areas and the River West area in order to pick up the Cabrini-Green Housing Project, all the while skirting around Latino majority blocks, and is 19.129% white and 9.647% Latino in terms of total population. The present 29th ward on the western edge of the city is 15.152% white and 9.534% Latino in terms of total population. In order to draw an additional African-American majority ward in this area, it would be necessary either to further extend these wards or to use additional non-African-American population as filler in order to populate the African-American wards.

  2. Bonilla Plaintiffs' Claims

  420. The Bonilla claims focus on the near northwest side, the near southwest side including the Back of the Yards, Marquette Park and Gage Park areas on the southwest side. The Latino community is generally concentrated in a 22 ward area in the center of the City. The Bonilla plaintiffs also made claims seeking the strengthening of the Latino influence ward on the southeast side by including additional Latino majority census blocks into the ward.

  421. The number of Latino majority wards is roughly proportional to the Latino share of the population in the 22 ward area in the center of the City (wards 1,2,3,1, 12, 14, 15, 16, 22, 24- 33, 33, 37, and 47) where Chicago's Latino population is concentrated. In this area of the City, Latinos comprise 34.21% of the total population and 30.79% of the VAP. Whites comprise 26.08% of the total population and 31.84% of the VAP in this area. African-Americans comprise 36.64% of the total population and 33.99% of the VAP in this 22 ward area. Seven of the 22 wards in this area have Latino majorities comprising collectively 31.82% of the wards. Thus Latinos control a number of wards roughly proportional to their proportion of the population in the central area of the City. There are, however, several sizeable areas of Latino population concentrations in this area of the City, particularly in the Back of the Yards and Marquette Park/Gage Park communities which could have been included in Latino majority wards but were not.

  422. The chief focus of the Bonilla case is the near southwest side of the City, in an area contained within the 11th, 12th, 14th, 15th and 16th wards. This area includes the Gage Park, Back of the Yards, and Marquette Park neighborhoods.

  423. Under the previous ward map, this area was included within the 11th, 12th, and 14th wards. Between 1980 and 1990, the Latino population grew significantly in this area, between 1980 and 1990 the Latino total population in this area grew from 38,063 to 66,562. Two of these three wards had in 1990 sizeable Latino minorities and one of these wards had a Latino plurality: the 11th ward was 27.98% Latino (24.08% in terms of VAP); the 12th ward was 36.88% Latino (30.85% in terms of VAP); and the 14th ward was 41.31% Latino (37.45% in terms of VAP). The 14th ward had a Latino total population plurality and a white VAP plurality. The 14th ward was also the most overpopulated ward in the City with a population 23.53% over the ideal. This area was clearly one of the areas in which it was necessary to draw at least one additional Latino majority ward in recognition of the explosion of the Latino population in the City.

  424. It would have been impossible, however, to craft two Latino majority wards in this area without borrowing population from another area of the City, most likely from north of the Stevenson Expressway which acted as the approximate northern boundary of this three ward area -- two Latino supermajority wards with 70% majorities in this area would have required a minimum Latino population of approximately 78,000 assuming that every Latino could have been included in a Latino majority ward.

  425. At the time of redistricting, therefore, it was clear that the 12th, 14th and 11th wards would need to be reconfigured in order to make way for a new Latino majority ward. The 11th and 14th wards were represented by Aldermen Patrick Huels and Edward Burke, two of the most senior, and powerful, members of the City Council. Alderman Burke is the chairman of the Finance Committee and is generally viewed as one of the foremost leaders of the Council. Alderman Burke is also known for his political prowess and longevity -- he has been 14th ward alderman since 1969 and ward committeeman since 1968, when he succeeded his father. He has not even been opposed in an aldermanic race since 1971. The 12th ward, meanwhile at the time of redistricting was represented by Mark Fary, a freshman alderman.

  426. These factors do not indicate that the present ward map was prepared in order to protect the incumbencies of Aldermen Huels and Burke. Certainly, the testimony indicated that the powerful southwest side incumbencies were on the minds of the parties drafting what eventually became the present ward map. The topic of concern was how to draw a new Latino majority ward that would avoid pitting a Latino challenger against either of these powerful incumbents, rather than how to protect these incumbents. It would have been an extremely risky proposition for a Latino challenger, without an extant ward organization, to mount a campaign against one of the most senior, powerful members of the City Council, who enjoyed the benefits of powerful ward organizations, incumbency, patronage, and funding.

  427. The testimony indicated that Judge Ruble-Murphy, as well as the members of the Latino Committee, were aware that it would have been a pyrrhic victory to place the residence of either Aldermen Burke or Huels within a new Latino majority ward. Avoiding these two incumbencies while drafting a new Latino majority ward was not an instance of improper incumbency protection so much as it was an instance of attempting to craft a new ward in which the Latino community would have a good opportunity to elect its candidate of choice. The goal was to draw a new Latino majority ward in which the Latino candidate of choice would likely emerge victorious, not to draw a new Latino majority ward in which it would be necessary to unseat a powerful incumbent.

  428. Taking into account the political realities on the southwest side, the 12th ward with a 36.88% total population (30.85% VAP) Latino population was the logical choice for the new Latino majority ward. The 12th ward was substantially reconfigured to add segments of the Latino population from the 22nd ward, the 11th ward, and the 14th ward. The resulting 12th ward has a Latino total population majority of 72.534% and a VAP majority of 65.443%. The white majority portions of the old 12th ward which were not included within the new ward were allocated to the 11th and 14th wards.

  429. The attempt to connect different areas of Latino population concentrations necessarily resulted in numerous re-alignments of population which were compounded by the manner in which the new 12th ward cuts like a ribbon through the center of the old 12th ward. There is nothing in the record to suggest that the new 12th ward was drawn around the 11th and 14th wards The record, rather, indicates that the 11th and 14th wards were drawn around the new 12th ward. The 11th and 14th wards, in essence, added territory removed from the 12th ward.

  430. The new 12th ward did not include the entire Latino concentration in the Back of the Yards and Marquette Park and Gage Park neighborhoods. These neighborhoods are now split between the 3rd, 12th, 16th, 15th and 14th wards. These reallocations of population were necessary in order to repopulate some of the neighboring wards which were significantly beneath the target population. As of the 1990 census, the 3rd ward was 21.54% beneath the target population and the 16th ward was 14% beneath the target population.

  431. The Bonilla plaintiffs contend that this population could have been the basis for forming a second Latino majority ward on the southwest side. The testimony indicated, however, that the representatives of the Latino community did not insist on another Latino majority ward in this area because of their practical assessment that an additional Latino ward would have had a lower than acceptable Latino majority population (Tr. 1940-41-Gutierrez). The Bonilla alternative maps contained an additional southwest side Latino majority ward, but only at the cost of lowering the Latino majorities in the southwest side Latino wards. Given the majorities contained in the alternative ward maps and the voting patterns in this area of the City, it is not unlikely that a Latino candidate of choice would not prevail in at least one of these wards.

  432. It would hardly encourage additional opportunities for Latino participation in the political process to create additional wards in which they constituted ineffective majorities. Nor does it violate VRA § 2 to make the conscious political choice to craft a ward map containing 7 wards in which Latinos constitute an effective majority instead of preparing a ward map containing 8 Latino majority wards but in which 2 of the wards could very well not contain effective majorities.

  433. The reasonable political choice made by the Latino political community to cement their political gains by agreeing to safe majorities in a number of wards which was roughly proportionate to the Latino community's share of the population instead of pushing for a larger number of wards with smaller, possibly ineffective, majorities cannot be discredited when considering the totality of the circumstances surrounding opportunities for Latino political participation. Prudent political concerns are necessarily an important component of the political process. Certainly, on the southwest side, there are Latino majority blocks which were fractured from Latino majority wards, but dividing and combining populations is inevitable in the districting process. The possibility that lines could have been drawn elsewhere, without more, does not result in vote dilution when the minority group enjoys substantial proportionality. De Grandy 512 U.S. at 1015-16, 114 S. Ct. at 2659. This compromise was both prudent and effective.

  434. The Bonilla alternative maps also indicated that it would have been possible to draw an additional Latino majority ward on the near northwest side. The Latino majorities in these additional wards would have been significantly lower than those in the present ward map and would have resorted to several long connecting corridors in order to pick up virtually every Latino majority census block on the northwest side. This Court can find no evidence of differential line drawing on the near northwest side disproportionately fracturing Latinos. In fact, the northwest side Latino majority wards, particularly the 26th, 31st and 35th wards contain large concentrations of white population which were included as filler in order to populate these wards.

  3. The Southeast Side

  435. Both the Barnett and Bonilla plaintiffs claim that minority voting strength was diluted on the southeast side of the City. The southeast side comprises the four ward area including the 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th wards. The Barnett plaintiffs claim that an additional African-American ward could have been drawn in this area while the Bonilla plaintiffs seek the inclusion of additional Latino majority census blocks into the 10th ward which is presently 43.133% Latino in terms of total population (37.522% Latino and 50.344% white in terms of voting age population).

  436. The plaintiffs established that it is possible to draw alternative ward maps in this area including drawing 4 African-American majority wards. Drawing an additional African-American ward in this area would have required the fracturing of several discrete neighborhoods and would have broken up traditional ward boundaries in the 10th ward. It would be necessary to draw irregularly shaped wards snaking around Lake Calumet in order to draw an additional African-American majority ward in this area of the City. The Barnett alternative maps for this area of the City would also have reconfigured the 8th ward, which is represented by an African-American alderman, Lorraine Dixon, who has been allied with the present administration. There is also no evidence of fracturing or packing of the African-American population in this area of the City.

  437. In no case is it possible, using the 1990 census data, to draw an effective Latino majority ward in this area of the City. It would have been possible to consolidate additional Latino population into a single ward, but courts cannot be asked to scrutinize districting schemes to such an extent that they would engage in transferring handfuls of blocks between wards in order to adjust slightly the minority percentages within a ward. The analytical framework of VRA § 2 does not account for influence district claims, although De Grandy certainly recognizes the value of electoral districts in which minority members are able to form coalitions with other members of the community. De Grandy, 512 U.S. at 1020, 114 S. Ct. at 2661. Nor would judicial intervention be desirable in every instance in which it might be possible to adjust ward lines in order to adjust slightly the population percentages within wards. There simply is no legal precedent for finding that VRA § 2 requires that a ward with a 37.522% Latino VAP be redrawn into a ward with a 40% Latino VAP.

  438. Nor would dividing up the 10th ward in order to create an additional African-American ward and consolidating the Latino community into an African-American majority ward necessarily result in greater Latino opportunities to participate in the political process than they enjoy in the present ward map. Voting in this area of the City is polarized between African-Americans and whites and Latinos but it is also polarized between Latinos and African-Americans.

  439. Plaintiffs' claims concerning the southeast side of the City ask this Court to engage in the sort of micro-management of districting schemes for which courts are unsuited and which is not consistent with the intent of VRA § 2.

  C. Conclusions Based on the Totality of the Circumstances

  440. After examining the record as a whole, this Court concludes that Latinos and African-Americans in the City of Chicago have an opportunity equal to other members of the electorate to participate in the political process and to elect representatives of their choice.

  441. While by no means perfect, the 1991-1992 redistricting process was the most open in Chicago's history. The record does not indicate that Alderman Burke seized control of the process in order to protect his position. Rather, the record indicates that Alderman Burke properly performed according to his leadership role in the Council by laying the groundwork for the redistricting process to proceed efficiently and openly. Alderman Burke's most important act in connection with the redistricting process was his assignment of Judge Ruble-Murphy as the coordinator of the redistricting effort. Judge Ruble-Murphy proved to be tireless and fair in the administration of her duties.

  442. The 1991 redistricting process permitted for more public involvement and ensured aldermanic input to a greater extent than any previous Chicago aldermanic redistricting. Many of the participants in the process left the negotiating table feeling that their interests had not been adequately considered, but it is inevitable that a process requiring so many difficult political decisions, particularly when the process did not end in the 41 vote consensus needed to avoid a referendum, would leave some of the participants disappointed.

  443. Similarly, the final ward map resulting from the redistricting process is not perfect and certainly has room for improvement. Nonetheless, the present ward map does more than any previous ward map, that was not the result of trial or settlement, to facilitate minority participation in the political process. The redistricting process in Chicago is extremely complex and requires the balancing of many competing interests. The present ward map, for all the dispute it engendered, nonetheless does a creditable job of balancing the competing political, neighborhood, racial and ethnic interests in Chicago while providing a means for the substantially proportional representation of the chief racial and ethnic groups in the City.

  444. The Voting Rights Act was intended to serve as a "means of eradicating voting practices that 'minimize or cancel out the voting strength and political effectiveness of minority groups.'" Reno v. Bossier Parish School Board, U.S. , 117 S. Ct. 1491, 137 L. Ed. 2d 730, 1997 WL 235097, *6 (1997), quoting, S.Rep. 97-416. The present ward map accomplishes this purpose by containing a proportional number of wards in which minority members constitute an effective majority enabling them to elect a proportional number of the members of the Chicago City Council.

  445. The present ward map also furthers the deeper salutary purpose of hastening the end of polarized voting by including a number of wards, including the 10th, 18th, 46th, 48th, and 49th wards, in which minority members, while not constituting an effective majority, are nonetheless present in such sizeable numbers that a candidate must receive support from minority voters in order to be successful. These multi-racial or multi-ethnic wards serve the salutary purpose of enabling and encouraging involvement in the give and take of political coalition building and compromise at the grass roots level. Locking minorities and whites into separate wards in which they constitute supermajorities might ensure proportionality of representation, but it will never serve the deeper purposes of the Voting Rights Act. By residing in racially and ethnically diverse wards, in which no racial or ethnic group wields absolute electoral control, the members of the community might be educated about the diversity of opinions and aspirations of other members of the community. By running for election in racially and ethnically diverse wards, in which no racial or ethnic group wields absolute electoral control, candidates might learn to be responsive to the broader community.


  446. Plaintiffs' intentional discrimination claims revolve around their contention that ward lines were manipulated in order to protect a handful of senior white incumbents. The desire to protect incumbents, as such, is not a form of racial discrimination. If, however, in order to protect incumbents, the redistricting scheme deliberately adopted devices for limiting minority representation, defendants have engaged in deliberate racial discrimination. Barnett v. Daley, 32 F.3d 1196 at 1196; Ketchum v. Byrne, 740 F.2d at 1408.

  447. In Section I.D., PP 176-184, of this Memorandum Opinion, this Court discussed, at length, plaintiffs' factual allegations that defendants adopted devices for limiting minority representation and manipulated ward boundaries in order to protect incumbencies. This Court found that concerns about the effectiveness of the new Latino wards and the concomitant attempt to draw Latino areas with high population concentrations into the new Latino majority wards motivated the shifts in ward boundaries. Changes in the ward boundaries were also necessary to correct the significant underpopulation of some of the south side wards. (PP 178-182).

  448. This Court also concluded that the manner in which the 11th, 14th, and 33rd wards, in particular, were drawn exhibited a significant level of political prudence insofar as the drawing of these wards avoided pitting a Latino aldermanic candidate against several of the incumbent white aldermen with the most formidable ward organizations. (P 183).

  449. Based upon the foregoing facts, upon the relevant legal standards, and upon this Court's previous determination that in the totality of the circumstances Latinos and African-Americans in the City of Chicago have an opportunity equal to other members of the electorate to participate in the political process, this Court concludes that the present ward map of the City of Chicago was not the product of an intent to discriminate against Chicago's African-American and Latino voters.


  For the reasons set forth above, this Court concludes that the plaintiffs have failed to prove that the present ward map for the City of Chicago violates § 2 of the Voting Rights Act, 42 U.S.C. § 1973. This Court also concludes that the plaintiffs have failed to establish that the present ward map was the product of an intent to discriminate against Chicago's African-American and Latino voters. Accordingly, the Clerk of the Court is directed to enter judgment in favor of defendants.


  June 9, 1997




  Decision by Court. This action came to a hearing before the Court. The issues have been heard and a decision has been rendered.

  IT IS ORDERED AND ADJUDGED that the plaintiffs have failed to prove that the present ward map for the City of Chicago violates § 2 of the Voting Rights Act, 42 U.S.C. § 1973. This Court also concludes that the plaintiffs have failed to establish that the present ward map was the product of an intent to discriminate against Chicago's African-American and Latino voters. Accordingly, the Clerk of the Court is directed to enter judgment in favor of defendants.

  June 9, 1997


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